Flash Flooding and Hail in Ohio, June 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
315 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2001

MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS THE WEAKENING MCS OVER NRN IN...EXTREME
WRN OH...AND SRN MI.  ALTHOUGH MCS IS WEAKENING...SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE NRN CWFA BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  POPS AND OR COVERAGE WORDING WILL BE A LAST MINUTE
DECISION.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS WILL PROVIDE HOT TEMPERATURES FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON.  DESPITE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...AIRMASS IS FCST TO BE VERY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 90 AND DEWPOINTS HOVER AROUND 70 (RESULTING IN
SB CAPES AROUND 3500-4000).  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CURRENT MCS WILL
BE A PLAYER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN.  IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE ATTM
WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL STOP...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
IT WILL END UP SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-70 BUT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH THE FOCUS OF THIS BOUNDARY
...WILL GO 40 POPS FOR CVG AND PMH GROUPS NORTH OF THE RIVER.  FOR
THE NRN CWFA...MESO ETA IS HINTING AT A MCV CURRENTLY OVER
IOWA...MOVING EAST INTO SRN MI OR NRN IN BY LATE IN THE DAY.  IF
THIS HOLDS TO TRUTH...THE RIPPLING EFFECT FROM THIS S/WV MAY ALSO
KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE NRN CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  WILL ALSO GO 40 POPS THERE.  THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD HAVE
THE LEAST CHC OF RAIN AND WILL GO 30 POPS THERE.

FOR TONIGHT...PLAN ON LEAVING SOME EVENING THUNDERSTORM WORDING
...THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPS WILL DIP TO AROUND
70.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE CWFA.  HOWEVER
...MSTR FROM THE REMNANTS OF ALLISON IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN
CWFA.  THE AIRMASS...IN THE VERTICAL...REMAINS MUCH DRIER ACRS THE
WEST THAN THE EAST.  WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL ONLY PLACE A 30 POP IN
THE ERRN CWFA FOR AFTN CONVECTION.

SPS WILL BE ISSUED AGAIN TO HIGHLIGHT THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

.ILN...NONE.

HICKMAN

OHZ061-077-122030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2001

...HOT WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO HIGHS AROUND 90 ON TODAY
AND THE LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY.  THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AROUND 95 ON
TUESDAY AND IN THE UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY.

NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST OUTBREAK OF HOT WEATHER OF THE YEAR.
THE LAST TIME DAYTON REACHED 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER WAS SEPTEMBER
12TH 1999. THE LAST TIME CINCINNATI EXPERIENCED 90 OR WARMER WAS
SEPTEMBER 2ND 2000.

TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY.

HERE ARE SOME HEAT-RELATED SAFETY TIPS:

DRINK PLENTY OF WATER OR OTHER NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES.

WEAR LOOSE...LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.

BE CAREFUL HOW YOU USE YOUR FANS. A FAN POINTED DIRECTLY AT A PERSON
MAY DEHYDRATE THE PERSON BY REMOVING MOISTURE FROM THE SKIN.  USE A
CIRCULATING FAN INSTEAD TO MOVE AIR THROUGH THE ROOM.

DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A CLOSED VEHICLE.

BE A GOOD NE.IGHBOR AND FRIEND. CHECK ON THOSE WHO MAY BE AT HIGH
RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.

INDIVIDUALS ON ANTI-DEPRESSANT OR HEART MEDICATIONS SHOULD CHECK
WITH THEIR DOCTOR TO SEE IF HEAT PUTS THEM AT AN INCREASED RISK.

HICKMAN