Damaging Winds in Ohio, July 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
235 PM EST TUE JUL 10 2001

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 100KT 200MB JET STREAK OVR UPR MDWST
WL MOVE ARND BASE OF ERN US/CAN TROF NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 500MB
CLOSED LOW OVR WRN QUEBEC XPCD TO DROP SE TO NEW ENGLAND BY THU.
VORT MAX OVR LH WL MOVE SE ACRS LWR GRTLKS TNGT. ANOTHER VORT LOBE
EXPECTED TO ROTATE ARND CLOSED LOW INTO LWR GRTLKS THU, TAKING A LTL
MORE ELY TRACK THAN TDAYS/TNGTS.

MODELS ALL FORECASTING WK UVM ARND 700MB LATE THIS AFTN/EVE AS FIRST
S/WV MOVES BY. LATEST LAPS DATA SUGGEST 1-2K J/KG CAPES OVR CWA.
COUPLE OF WK WIND SHIFT LINES NOTED AT SFC, BUT CONVERGENCE VERY WK.
WK FORCING, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND DECENT INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
KEEPING LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING...EXCEPT PLAN ON REMOVING POPS NW
WHERE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ACRS LM SHD PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION. BUFKIT SHOWING >30C SFC-10K FT DELTA THETA-E THIS EVE,
INDICATING GOOD DOWNDRAFT/HAIL POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS...ALSO DECENT
0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME ROTATION ALREADY NOTED IN NW OH TSTM.

HI PRES AND COOLER/DRIER AMS XPCD TO BUILD INTO AREA OVRNGT AND
REMAIN THRU WED. WK S/WV FCST BY MODELS TO BE MOVG OVR BACKSIDE
OF PLAINS RIDGE INTO SRN SASK WED MORNING. AVN MOVES THIS SYSTEM
EAST THEN SE INTO NRN INDIANA BY 00Z FRI, WHILE ETA MOVES IT SLOWLY
NE INTO MANITOBA. NGM ALSO MUCH SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT. ETA/NGM
SOLUTIONS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND PREFERRED,
THUS WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST FOR THU.

MOS TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGHOUT AND SEEM REASONABLE. GIVEN DRY
AMS, LEANED TOWARD LARGER DIURNAL RANGES WHERE DIFERENCES EXIST.

IWX...NONE.

DJT