Hail in New Mexico, August 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 14 2001

SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT. THEN THE WAVE GETS SHOVED DUE EAST BY A
STRONGER WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COOL
FRONT WILL PLUNGE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FAST AND MAY PRECLUDE STRONG STORMS
IN THE NORTHEAST BY STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
SOUTHEAST ZONES HAVE BEST SHOT AT HEAVY TSTRMS WEDNESDAY SINCE THE
FRONT AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL ALREADY BE IN THE SE BY AFTN. EAST
WIND FOR CENTRAL VALLEYS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THUS HIGHER
POPS FOR 3RD PD IN ABQ THAN 2ND PD.

AS UPPER WINDS VEER AROUND FROM WESTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY...MID
LEVELS WILL START TO DRY OUT TONIGHT. MIXING WILL DRY LOW LEVELS
WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST LEADING TO WARMING. DEWPOINTS SHOULD EASILY
DROP INTO 40S AND MAYBE INTO 30S ACROSS NW ZONES WEDNESDAY. ABQ POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BE A COMPETITION BETWEEN DRYING AND EAST
WIND/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE.

AM ALSO CONCERNED THAT THE BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING IN SOME DRYING
TO THE EAST. STRONG CAA AT H5 LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE A SUBSIDING ONE. MOST OF THE DRY
AIR WILL GO OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN GET SHOVED BACK INTO
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. THUS I EXPECT SOME DRYING OF LOW LEVELS IN EAST
FOR BOTH WED AND THURS. IF I HAD TO GUESS...ID SAY THAT DEWPTS IN
THE NORTHEAST WILL BE DOWN INTO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY AFTN THEN DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 40S THURSDAY AFTN.

CONTINUED WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY IN THE WEST THURSDAY WITH
EXPANDING UPPER HIGH...NORTH WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING. IM NOT GOING
TO SAY ITLL BE WARMER IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY THOUGH...SINCE TEMPS
WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE EXPANDING UPPER HIGH AND THE COOLER AIR
FROM THE EAST.

WILL BEGIN TO TONE WORDING DOWN A NOTCH IN THE EXTENDED TO INDICATE
DRIER WEATHER. I DONT SEE ANY SURGES FROM THE SOUTH OR RECOVERY IN
LOW LVL DEWPTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WILL
CHANGE WORDING TO CHANCE RATHER THAN SCT...EVE INSTEAD OF NIGHTTIME
...MAINLY MOUNTAINS INSTEAD OF MOST NUMEROUS MOUNTAINS. JWS

ABQ BB 063/089 065/087 062 46212
SAF BB 056/080 056/084 056 46422
TCC BB 064/082 062/085 060 46533

.ABQ...NONE.