Flash Flood in New Jersey, August 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 12 2001

FFA WILL BE CONTD THRU TNGT AS CONVECTIVE ACTVTY HAS INCRD DURG THE
LAST FEW HRS. WE HAVE CAUGHT A BREAK WITH THE CLDY SKIES...IT HAS
COOLED THE CONVECTIVE JUICES A BIT. EVEN WITH THE CLDY SKIES...WE
CAME CLOSE TO THE LOWERED FFG VALUES IN THE MD ERN SHORE. TWO SHRT
WVS OF CONCERN...THE ONE MOVG ACRS DELMARVA ATTM AND THE SECOND
HANDLED BY THE ETA BETTER OVR WV/ERN OH/SWRN PA. BLV GREATEST THREAT
FOR FLOODING SHLD BE WITH THIS FEAT...ESP IF CONVECTION ARRIVES ERLY
THIS EVE AND SHLD END ONCE THIS SHRT WV MOVES EWD OVRNGT. GIVEN FCST
MOVEMENT AND INABILITY OF CONVECTION TO GET TOO FAR N OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE...WILL NOT BE EXTENDING THE FFA ANY FTHR N. IF THEY
DIDN/T GET DRENCHED YDA WOULD HAVE PBLY PULLED THE WATCH DOWN IN THE
LEHIGH VLY WITH THIS PKG.

CORFIDI VECTORS FCSTG NO MOVEMENT THRU TNGT IN SERN PART OF OUR CWA
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATG SHLD SIMMER CONDS DOWN. WE HAVE A THETA E MAX
OVR THE CWA ATTM...BUT THIS DOES GET REPLACED BY TROFFINESS TWD
MRNG. OTRWISE THERE/S ENUF INSTAB AND CAPE TO SUPPORT THUNDER INTO
THE NGT. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN DVLP A SHRT WV TWD MRNG WHICH MIGHT
DVLP PCPN AGN. IT DID NOT OCR WITH MUCH ZEST THIS MRNG...ALTHO ATTM
THIS POINT IS MOOT GIVEN CUR FFA AND WORDG OF ZONES. HARD TO ARGUE
WITH GUID MINS FOR TNGT. FOG SHLD FORM AGN IN MUGGY AIR.

ON MON ETA AND AVN CONT TO AGREE TO DISAGREE. ETA BRINGS CDFNT CLS
TO WRN EDGE OF OUR CWA BY MON MRNG THEN WAITS FOR 2NDRY FRONTOGEN TO
FINALLY MOVE HUMID AIR MASS OFSHR AT NGT. AVN APRS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOR
AND INCRS THE CHCS FOR MORE FLDG TSRAS ON MON. ATTM WE DO NOT PLAN
ON EXTDG FFA. IF THE ETA VERIFIES IT WON/T BE NECESSARY AS THERE IS
STG NEG THETA E ADVT DURG THE DAY AND PWATS ARE IN A FREE FALL DURG
MAX TIME OF DAYTIME HEATG. EVEN THE AVN HAS THE THETA E RDG IN FAR
ERN ZONES BY AFTN AND STARTS DROPPING THE PWATS TWD EVE. MID SHIFT
COULD REACCESS ALSO BASED UPON HOW MUCH HVY PCPN DOES OR DOES NOT
FALL TNGT. OTRWISE PRFR TO LEAN TWD SLGTLY HIER POPS ON THE MAV
AND CORRESPONDINGLY LWR MAX TEMPS. FULL SUN MACROS ARE IN THE MID
80S WHICH MIGHT BE STRETCHING IT GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE
LWR 80S.

WILL END PCPN CHCS WITH THE DAY IN OUR NWRN CWA...BUT WILL CARRY A
LINGERING POP ACRS SERN 2/3RDS OF CWA FOR THE EVE ONLY. THERE SHLD
BE SOME FOG FRMG OVRNGT AS SKIES CLR. GUID MINS AGN LOOK RSNBL FOR
MON NGT.

THE THREE WORDS EVERYONE WANTS TO HEAR HERE (OTHER THAN I LOVE YOU)
WILL BE IN THE ZONES FOR TUE (AND LESS HUMID). ENUF DRY AIR FILTERS
INTO MOST OF OUR ZONES PLUS THE ETA/S USUAL CAP TO KEEP THE CWA DRY.
IT MIGHT BE CLS IN OUR FAR SRN ZONES ESP IF THE SLOR AVN VERIFIES.
ATTM ITS MOS BARELY CARRIES A CHC POP FOR SBY...SO WE/LL LEAVE THE
CWA DRY. ETA FULL SUN MAXT MACROS SAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR TUE.
SO WILL DO A FLIP FLOP WITH THE GUID AND GO WITH THE WRMR AVN MOS
FOR TUE.

MAR: ALL/S QUIET AGAIN ALTHO SEAS WILL BE NEARING SCA CRIT.

MY APOLOGIES FOR YDA/S SUSSEX CTY ANNIVERSARY DAY WHL IT WAS ON A
SAT LAST YR...TDY IS THE TRUE CALENDAR YR ANNIVERSARY ONE WE ALL
HOPE WON/T HAVE NEW FAMILY MEMBERS IN THE YEARS TO COME.

.PHI...
DE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ZONES DEZ001>004.

MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ZONES MDZ008...
MDZ012...MDZ015...MDZ019>020.

NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
NJZ009>010...NJZ012>026.

PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 500 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
PAZ060>062...PAZ067>071.

MARINE...NONE

TFG