Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 10, 2001

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2001

SYNOPSIS...AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX'S NEAR 30N 130W...
OLD MEXICO...AND A WEAKER ONE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.  RIBBON OF DRY
AIR ALSO EVIDENT PUSHING NORTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN
NEVADA AHEAD OF EASTERN PACIFIC VORT MAX.  LKN RADAR STARTING TO
SHOW CONVECTION OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND HUMBOLDT COUNTY WITH A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY.  LATEST MSAS STABILITY
INDICES SHOW LI'S -4 TO -5 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA WITH -2 TO
-3 ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY.  LAPS THETA E SHOWS BULLSEYE OVER
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY WITH CAPE AT 1600 J/KG IN THE SAME AREA.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND IN TO THE
EVENING MOST OF CWFA. ELKO 12Z SOUNDING HAS 0.81 INCHES OF PRECIPITAL
WATER, AND STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH PLENTY OF WATER.  ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT WIDESPREAD.  WILL MONITOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOISTURE TO HANG IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND LARGE CENTRAL US HIGH...AND SHORTWAVES EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA FROM THE 30N 135W EASTERN PACIFIC LOW.
MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME PICKING UP THESE FEATURES FOR THE MOST PART,
BUT THE ETA PICKS UP A SHORTWAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT.  THIS LOOKS REALISTIC WITH WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWING
THIS FEATURE OFF SHORE.  THE FEATURE IS WEAK, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP NOCTURNAL CONVECTION GOING.  WILL CONTINUE
THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  ON WEDNESDAY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF TRIGGERS, HOWEVER MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE BRUSHING NORTHWEST NEVADA.  WILL
KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY...ELSEWHERE
WILL USE EVENING WORDING. THURSDAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO DRIER
AIR AS EASTERN PACIFIC TROF APPROACHES AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS VEER
SOUTHWEST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED CATEGORY POPS...PROBABLY
20'S FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2 OR 3
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL BLEND GUIDANCE
TEMPS.  WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE WILL SHOW A SLOW DRYING TREND IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONGER TERM...FRI-TUE...EASTERN PACIFIC TROF BRINGS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND DRY AIR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  BY SUNDAY THE TROF MOVES ON SHORE DROPPING
500MB HTS NEARLY 100 METERS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND LATE SUNDAY.
COOLING TREND BY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED...
HOWEVER BREEZY CONDITIONS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTEDs BY THE
FIRST OF THE WEEK AS THE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

.EKO...NONE.

LEWIS