Hail in Nebraska, May 1, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
130 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

...TEMPS/RAIN CHCS REMAIN THE MAIN QUESTIONS OF FCST...

POWERFUL 140KT H3 JET SHOWN ON UAA & QUITE EVIDENT ON WV LOOP PUSHING
OFF THE PAC INTO NW US...WL BE THE CATALYST FOR OUR CHANGE TO A VERY
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THRU THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW BUCKLES AND LEADS TO
SW LO...WHICH WAITS TIL SAT/SUN TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.

LLVL MOISTURE IS IMPROVING OVER PLAINS...W/ A STREAM OF 60+F READINGS
FROM ERN TX/OK/KS/NEB INTO IA & SRN MN. H85 FLOW ON AM UAA WAS FROM
THE SW WITH 10C DWPT POOL FROM NE TX/E OK. 16Z PROFILERS STILL SHOW
THIS SW FLOW...BUT MDLS SUGGEST A BACKING TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTN &
EVENING...ALLOWING DECENT MOISTURE INTO ERN CWA ANYWAY.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ONL TO SNY AT NOON. MVMT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN WHAT MDLS SUGGESTED YSTY/LAST NIGHT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TSRA
CHCS IN NRN CWA THIS EVE...THEN SHIFTING INTO SE NEB OVERNIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO REWORD FCST AS SUCH. STILL ERN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE BEST SHOT
AND WILL KEEP AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

COLD FRONT THRU AREA BY 12Z WED & AGREE W/ MID SHIFT THAT SUN WL HELP
GET US BACK INTO THE 60/65 RANGE. PCPN CHC DURING DAY SEEM MINIMAL...
SO WL NOT UP THE 20%. STILL LOOKS LIKE PCPN MOVES BACK INTO CWA LATE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WV EJECT INTO PLAINS FROM THE SW & PERHAPS
COMBINES W/ RRQ OF JET TO OUR NRN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS. BY THU...CLDCVR AND CONTD CAA W/ MAKE FOR A
COOL DAY. MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S NW TO 60S SE.

SAME SETUP THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT WAVE ROTATES UP
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. HAVE TO THINK AVN HAS BLOWN A FUSE IN GIVING SE
1/2 OF CWA 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 06Z FRI-06Z SAT. STILL...GOOD
CHC OF RAIN/TSRAS LOOKS IN ORDER.

AVN TRENDING TOWARD LIFTING UPPER LO MORE N AS IT PHASES W/ NEXT NW
US SYSTEM...PULLING A BULK OF THE PCPN N & E OF AREA BY WEEKEND. WONT
BUY INTO THIS JUST YET AS 60HR ETA FCST HAS A MORE SOUTHERN POSITION
OF UPPER LO IN SW...MAKING PHASING MORE DIFFICULT. NOGAPS & CANADIAN
SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...IT WL BE SLOWER THAN AVN
SHOWS...KEEPING DRY SLOT OUT OF CWA MUCH OF WEEKEND. WONT CHANGE THE
EXTENDED MUCH. JUST WORD FRI AS LIKELY PCPN -VS- CHC ON WEEKEND. FRI
WL PROBABLY BE COOLER THAN WEEKEND AS WELL. DRY BY TUE...IF NOT MON.

.GID...NONE.

GURNEY

NEZ046-061-020245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
847 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #183 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR BUFFALO AND
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER BUFFALO AND SHERMAN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. NONE THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FOCUSED MAIN%LY EAST OF A LINE FROM ST PAUL TO WOOD RIVER.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA
FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

DEE