Damaging Wind in Missouri, May 30, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2001

MAIN FORECAST QUESTIONS ARE PRECIP TIMING AND POP VALUES.

88D RADAR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED LEFTOVER BAND OF PRECIP FROM
OVERNIGHT PLAINS CONVECTION FINALLY PENETRATED THE PREDOMINANTLY DRY
AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATED PREVIOUSLY BY 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.  WHILE THERE WAS A RIDGE BUILDING
IN THE WESTERN U.S....STACKED LOW PRES AREA OVER OK WAS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD INTO THE NARROW RIDGE OVER THE FA. SFC MAP SHOWED LOW IN
NORTHEAST KS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO CENTRAL
OK/TX AND WARM FRONT EXTENDING THRU NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL. A
SFC TROUGH CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE PRECIP COMING IN FROM THE
WEST.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW. ETA/NGM WERE VERY CLOSE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THRU 48 HOURS...BUT
AFTER 30 HOURS AVN WAS A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE
FEATURE AS IT HEADS FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND OPENS UP. ETA SHOWS A
SECONDARY VORT MAX RIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN ONE AT 500MB DURING FRI BUT
THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WAY BY THEN. EVEN THO AVN IS THE
ODD MAN OUT...AGREE WITH NCEP THAT IT HAS SHOWN BEST RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND THUS WILL GIVE IT SOME WEIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE LOW...SPC INDICATES SLIGHT SVR RISK WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR 1ST PERIOD AND EAST OF THERE FOR 2ND.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER VIGOROUS VORT LOBE/COLD FRONT COMING DOWN THE
BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE AND THRU THE FA FRI NITE. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE BREIF BUT ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF PRECIP EARLY
SAT FOR MAINLY IN/IL/KY...LINGERING SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP INTO SAT
FOR NORTHERN REGIONS.

POP GUIDANCE SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...FWC CONTINUES
TO SHOW WARMER TEMPS ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS. PLAN TO USE A
FWC/MAV BLEND DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW. THE LOWS PATH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHWEST SO
THAT THE MOISTURE FIELDS MAY SPLIT TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE
FA...CREATING AN UNCERTAIN PRECIP/CLOUD COVER SITUATION.

EXTENDED WISE...THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE SOMETIME
LATE DAY 6 /EARLY DAY 7 AS A TROF IS ADVERTISED BY MRF(THE FASTEST)
TO SWEEP IN FROM THE PAC NW. CONSIDERING A MENTION IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.

.PAH...NONE.

DB