Flooding in Missouri, April 10 to 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
251 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

CERTAINLY NO LACK OF CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SUPPOSE THE MAIN
CHALLENGES WOULD BE TIMING OF TSRA...INTENSITY AND QPF RELATED
CONCERNS.

TSRA DEVELOPED ON WARM FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.  ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
REGENERATE ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT.  WAA THERE...THOUGH REALLY NOT ALL
THAT STRONG...SO WEAK WAVE BARELY NOTICEABLE ON H2O LOOP MUST BE
HELPING SUSTAIN ACTIVITY.  LACK OF STRONG FORCING CERTAINLY SAYS
SOMETHING ABOUT THE INSTABILITY.  MODELS ADVERTISE STRONGER WAVE FOR
THIS AFTN WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY EASY TO INDENTIFY EITHER...THOUGH
SOMETHING APPEARS TO BE ENTERING SWRN OK ATTM.  BOTTOM LINE HERE IS
THAT TIMING OF TSRA IS VERY DIFFICULT.  LOCATION NOT SO EASY
EITHER.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...SO
CONVECTION MAY GO WITH IT.  WILL PROBABLY JUST BLANKET LIKELY POPS
ACROSS CWA.

WILL PROBABLY GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SVR IN MOST ZONES...CERTAINLY
THOSE THAT APPEAR TO BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ALSO CONSIDERED A FF WATCH...AS SOME AREAS WILL MOST DEFINITELY
RECEIVE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND WITH GROUND STILL QUITE MOIST...MAY
HAVE SOME PRETTY GOOD RUNOFF.  HOWEVER...WITH WARM FRONT ON THE
MOVE...WILL PROBABLY JUST MENTION +RA FOR NOW.

MAY NEED FF WATCH TONIGHT...BUT WOULD PREFER TO ALLOW DAY CREW TO
GET BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS.  TRICKY TO IDENTIFY JUST WHICH FEATURE
WILL KICK OFF ACTIVITY TONIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ONE MORE SHORT
WAVE AHEAD OF MAIN WAVE.  LLJ REALLY STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...THE NOSE
OF WHICH WILL BE PUSHING INTO WRN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z...ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT WITH WHEN DRYLINE ACTIVITY MAY COME RACING IN FROM SW.

WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR ERN ZONES ON WED GIVEN LOCATION OF
DRYLINE.  TOUGH CALL ON WRN ZONES POPS.  HAVE A FEELING DRYLINE WILL
COME THROUGH TOO EARLY...BUT WILL ONLY CUT BACK TO 50 PROBABLY.

TEMPS QUITE THE CONUNDRUM.  STRATUS HAS NEARLY OVERSPREAD ALL OF CWA
FROM NE.  WOULD THINK THAT IT WOULD GET SHOVED NORTHWARD ONCE WARM
FRONT MOVED THROUGH.  A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HANG TOUGH
FOR MOST OF DAY...SO WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS.  TEMPS MAY NOT
FALL MUCH TONIGHT...WITH ONLY WET BULB PROCESSES TO COOL THINGS DOWN.
TEMPS MAY HOP UP QUITE A BIT AFTERC DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH WED.  MAY
NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS CURRENT ZFP...BUT MUCH WARMER THAN FWC
VALUES.

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

MANION

KSZ057-060-MOZ031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054-101030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
455 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
PETTIS...SALINE...LAFAYETTE...MIAMI...LINN...COOPER...CHARITON.
..CARROLL...CASS...HOWARD...JOHNSON...HENRY...BATES AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...EXPIRES AT 5 AM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BUT THE IMMEDIATE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.

JM

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST:  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY SLOWLY WEAKEN.  ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.  ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS WELL.  SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING.

DISCUSSION:  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
KICK OFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND WILL HAVE SOME
WIND SHEAR PRESENT...SO SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

OUTLOOK:  THE UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY ALONG
WITH A DRY LINE.  ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY VERY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MANION

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX

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