Damaging Wind in Minnesota, June 13, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2001

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ETA AND NGM ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...WITH THE AVN THE ODD MAN OUT. WILL FOLLOW THE
ETA AS IT MATCHES BEST WITH THE SFC FEATURES AT INITIALIZATION.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CLOUD DECK BREAKING UP ACROSS THE
CWFA. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE PERSISTING DUE TO LAKE BREEZE. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY SFC OBS AND AT THE OFFICE. SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NW MN...NORTH OF MZH...AND THEN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LS AT 19Z.

SFC WARM FRONT PROGGED TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWFA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER MAY RETARD THIS SOMEWHAT AND PROTECT THE
NORTH SHORE FROM SIGNIFICANT TSRA ACTIVITY. MAIN SFC LOW TO REMAIN
IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA AREA WITH A SECONDARY...WEAK
LOW SPINNING UP IN NORTH CENTRAL MN LATE. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS
AREAS OF LIFT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONNECT THESE TWO
LOWS. TSRA INDEED LIKELY FOR TONIGHT. FFG VALUES NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

UPPER LEVEL LOW JOINS TOGETHER WITH SFC LOW THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO
LIFT NNE. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
MN CWFA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CENTER OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER AND SFC LOWS LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY FRIDAY MORNING AT
12Z. THIS WILL ALLOW A DRY SLOT TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE CWFA. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CARRY HIGH POPS THURSDAY AND TREND THEM DOWN A BIT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRIDAY...TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. HIGHER POPS IN
THE WEST ALONG THE SYSTEMS PATH...WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER EAST. MAV
TEMPS TOO COOL AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS FWC AND ETA 2M TEMPS.

COORD WITH MPX AND FGF.

.DLH...NONE.

GSF