Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, August 5, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CWFA
REMNANT CI AND AC OVER W AND E PARTS OF CWFA WITH REMAINDER SKC.
LATEST MSAS SFC PRESSURE ANALYSIS HAS LOW CENTERED IN S MB N OF
ROX...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CWFA ALONG A ROX-GFK-JMS
LINE. WHEN COMPARING INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS TO MODELS...AVN
CLOSEST MATCH. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF CWFA BY 06Z
MON...AND WITH CAP DECREASING AS GO INTO EVENING...ANTICIPATE TSRA
TO REDEVELOP. CONSIDERING THAT CAPES ABOUT 3000...LI'S -5 TO -12
OVER CWFA...AND BEST SHEAR IN FAR E CWFA...COULD SEE SOME SVR THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT...LEFT CHC TSRA IN S VALLEY AND MN SIDE OF
CWFA. WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS WORKING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT...WILL LET
HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE.

ON MON...SFC HIGH MOVES THROUGH CWFA WITH PLENTY OF SUN...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO RETURN TO 85 TO 95 RANGE. SFC HIGH MOVES E OF CWFA MON
NIGHT...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SHOWALTERS GO NEGATIVE WITH STRONG WAA...PROVIDING
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND...SO KEPT
CHC TSRA FOR DVL SET. SFC LOW TRACKS INTO W ND BY 00Z WED...WITH
LI'S GOING NEGATIVE AS WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH N CWFA INTO CANADA.
THEREFORE...KEPT CHC POPS FOR TSRA. ON TUE NIGHT...SFC LOW STARTS
MOVING E ACROSS ND...GIVING BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA
ACROSS N CWFA...SO WENT LIKELY POPS N CWFA AND CHC POPS S CWFA.

EXTENDED...MEAN H5 CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO TRANSITION FM A MUDDY 5
WAVE PATTERN TO A MORE STABLE THREE WAVE PATTERN BY DAY 5. HOT RIDGE
IN CNTRL U.S. FLATTENS ACROSS ENTIRE CAN/AM BDR BY DAY 2...WITH A
ERN NOAM TROF DEEPENING AFTER. PATTERN SHOULD SPELL TEMP/PCPN RELIEF
FOR THE BAKED AND SOAKED NRN PLAINS AFT WED WHEN TEMPS DROP NEAR TO
BLO NORMALS. MAIN TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART THE AREA ON WED. DRY
PATTERN EXPECTED AFTER THOUGH ECMWF AND NEW AVN HINT AT SHRTWV TROF
ACTION ON FRIDAY.

.FGF...NONE.

NG/GUST

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-052330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2001

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY ABATE THIS EVENING...

THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PLAGUED THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL SLOWLY ABATE THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND AFTER THESE LAST FEW DAYS OF EXTREMELY STRESSFUL
HEAT...PERSONS WITH HEALTH RISKS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

GUST