Damaging Winds in Michigan, September 8, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
200 AM EST SAT SEP 8 2001

SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WITH
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH EASTERN IA. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR
THE MOST PART OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING. TIMING OF PRECIP EVENTS
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FCST. FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME
EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL IL BY 00Z SUN. THIS ALONG WITH ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFTOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL SERVE
TO TRIGGER TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK BOUNDARIES IN OUR VICINITY FROM
LINE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND U60S DEWPOINTS WILL WARRANT SOME
SMALL POPS THIS AFTERNOON...40 IN WEST AND 30 EAST. FRONT TO REMAIN
HUNG OUT TO OUR WEST TONIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE SOME EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER IL. WILL GO WITH SCT TSRA
IN WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN EAST. LARGE
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODELS IN THE OUT PERIODS. NOT READY TO BUY
INTO THE QUICKER AVN SOLN AS UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN SEABOARD
SHOULD SERVE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROF COMING OUT OF CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY THUS FAVORING SLOWER ETA. SFC WAVE TO FORM ALONG
FRONT AND MOVE UP INTO IL SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP FOCUS AREA OF
PRECIP FROM NE IL INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. WILL UP POPS TO
LIKELY IN WEST BUT KEEP IN CHANCE RANGE IN EAST. LIKELY POPS ENTIRE
CWA SUN NITE AS UPPER TROF AND TRAILING FRONT FROM SFC WAVE
APPROACHES. IN GOING TOWARD SLOWER SOLN...WILL ADD IN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MON THEN DRY FCST THROUGH DAY 7. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUN EARLY TODAY SO WILL GO AOA WARMER FWC. USE BLEND OF FWC/MAV
REMAINING PERIODS.

.IWX...NONE.

JAL