Damaging Wind in Maine, August 10, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1006 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2001

.UPDATED...
UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY WORDING. REDUCED THE POPS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS TO
SCATTERED AND KEEPING NUMEROUS WORDING OVER INTERIOR AND DOWNEAST.  FRONT
STILL BACK IN QUEBEC AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING INTO THE STATE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND OFF THE COAST EARLY
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MOSAIC RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
IN ADVANCED OF STRONG COLD FRONT ATTM.  WIND FIELD IN ADVANCE OF FRONT
REMAINS QUITE STRONG WITH H85-700MB LYR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHILE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK (300 MB) SUPPORTING WINDS OF 100 KT OR MORE.

MODELS SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT INDICATE CAPE VALUES REACHING BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE TODAY. BEST UPPER LEVEL THERMAL SUPPORT REMAINS OVER QUEBEC
PROVINCE...HOWEVER INCREASING INSOLATION SHOULD HELP ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION
OF ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND FIELDS ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SPC HAS ADJUSTED THE
RISK OF SEVERE TO BE SLGT FROM VCNTY OF HUL SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST.  IN
THESE AREAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF FROPA EXISTS.
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS UP IN NEW ZONE ISSUANCE.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH REFRESHING WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE NORTH AND TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE A DELIGHTFUL DAY WITH
PLEASANT TEMPS AND MUCH LOWER DPTS SATURDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO
DOWNEAST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

COASTAL WATERS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND MENTION
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES IN THE VICINITY OF STRONGER TSTMS TODAY.
WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.CAR...SCA.

BT/JH

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029-030-110000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2001

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 58 MPH. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ALL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SOUTH OF A
HOULTON TO GREENVILLE LINE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST DETAILS OR UPDATES.

HEWITT