Hail in Kentucky, May 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COUPLE OF MESO LOWS NEAR KENTUCKY...THE
CLOSEST ONE IS NEAR CVG AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER MCS AND IS
HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORMS THERE NOW. THE SECOND ONE IS
NEAR PAH AND WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
IN AWHILE TO THE ENTIRE CWA LATER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT-RANGE NOW THAT THE
OUTLIERS AVN HAS BACKED OFF ITS QUICK MOVING SOLUTION FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MCV. THEY ALL ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING THIS SHORT-WAVE
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. FOLLOWING THAT THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE SYNOPTIC-LY SIGNIFICANT WITH A MONSTER RIDGE OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST ALL THE WAY UP TO ALASKA. THIS ALLOWS A SHORTWAVE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SPIN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO
AN VERY UNSEASONABLE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE MCV GENERATED SFC LOW
APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CWA-WIDE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN OUR HIGH
PWS...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS...AND THETA E RIDGING THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. LATER SATURDAY THE LOW SLIDES PAST TAKING ITS CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH IT. IN STRIKING CONTRAST TO THE AVN/S
PREVIOUS RUNS...IT HANGS ON TO PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS. PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION HERE DRYING US OUT ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES LATER MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE PLAINS UPPER LOW. THIS COULD BE INTERESTING AS COLDER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP TOWARD THE
OHIO VALLEY BEFORE BECOMING CUT OFF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
WILL FORECAST COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS...LEAVING THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS JUST SHOWERS.

MOS TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR...POPS LOOK BETTER
TODAY AS WELL.

WORK ZONES OUT SHORTLY IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL.

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF