Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2001

CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TEMPS THE MAIN CONCERNS
THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER ANALYS SHOWING SERIES OF S/WVS EVIDENT ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S.  THESE ALSO PRESENT ON WATER VAPOR...AS IS WEAK MVC
OVER SRN NEBR/NRN KANS VCNTY WHERE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ONGOING.  MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THESE S/WVS EWD...DRAGGING WEAK
ENERGY ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE STATE.

WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS WRN AND
NRN ZONES.  GUID TEMPS IN THE L/M 60S SEEM REASONABLE.

SHOULD HAVE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND TMRW AND WILL KEEP MENTION
OF PRECIP HERE..ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT.  CURRENTLY HAVE
JUST MORNING MENTION FOR MONDAY.  WILL LIKELY REMOVE THIS AND JUST
KEEP CHANCE FOR THE DAY.  SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDS AND PREFER
WARMER MAV NUMBERS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH.  MODELS INDICATED THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA AND
WILL KEEP THIS PD DRY.  NOT MUCH CHANGES IN TEMPS FROM GOING VALUES.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DEEPER
TROF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.  MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THURSDAY...AND PUSHED IT MORE INTO
FRIDAY.  WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND.  STILL EXPECTING SOMEWHAT OF A
COOLING TREND...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR THE MOST PART.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   66  91  66  90 /  20  20  10  10
HUT   65  90  65  89 /  20  20  10  10
EWK   65  91  66  89 /  20  20  10  10
EQA   66  91  65  90 /  20  20  10  10
WLD   67  92  67  91 /  20  20  10  10
RSL   64  90  64  90 /  20  20  10  10
GBD   65  90  65  90 /  20  20  10  10
SLN   65  90  65  89 /  20  20  10  10
MPR   65  90  65  89 /  20  20  10  10
CFV   65  90  65  88 /  10  10  10  10
CNU   64  89  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
K88   64  88  64  86 /  10  10  10  10

.ICT...NONE.