Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, May 20, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS PACKAGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ETA MODEL LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE. AT
12Z THIS MORNING IT WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH REGARD TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROF AT 500 MB IN WRN KANSAS. AT 18Z IT INDICATED THE COLD
FRONT IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ACCURATELY HAD THE VORTICITY LOBE
WHICH IS THE TRIGGER FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD. BY 00Z THE FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY OF MKC-GBD-LAA...THEN BY 06Z EXTEND FROM
NORTHEAST MO TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THEN INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE MOVING
THROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THAT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. CURRENTLY ARE SEEING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS PER SPC'S MODERATE RISK IN THAT AREA. BEING
AS UNSTABLE AS WE ARE...ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND
AND HAIL TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES PRIMARILY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO THE FACT THAT
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THAT AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BECOME
QUITE GUSTY. THE NORTH WINDS SHOULD STAY GUSTY THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TOMORROW EVENING.

MODELS INDICATE 500 MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY THEN A
BLOCKING RIDGE THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN STATES. THIS PUTS US UNDER
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND SHOULD GIVE US VERY NICE WEATHER
RIGHT ON INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 50S.

FCSTID = 20
ICT   52  66  46  72 /  70   0   0   0
HUT   49  62  44  71 /  70   0   0   0
EWK   49  62  44  71 /  70   0   0   0
EQA   52  66  46  72 /  70   0   0   0
WLD   52  66  46  72 /  70   0   0   0
RSL   46  62  42  71 /  60   0   0   0
GBD   46  62  42  71 /  60   0   0   0
SLN   46  62  42  71 /  60   0   0   0
MPR    49  62  44  71 /  70   0   0   0
CFV   54  66  48  69 /  70  30   0   0
CNU   54  66  48  69 /  70  30   0   0
K88   54  66  48  69 /  70  30   0   0

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1203 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2001

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:
AS OF MIDDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ENTRENCHED OVER KANSAS.  AN
UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH CENTRAL...
TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  A COLD FRONT WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7 PM...WILL BE
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MARION.  THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HAIL TO AROUND AN INCH...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.   THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 10 PM.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST...
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EUREKA TO ARKANSAS CITY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 1 PM AND 10 PM NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM MARION TO HUTCHINSON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 7 PM NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
EUREKA TO ARKANSAS CITY.

/HOWERTON