Hail in Kansas, May 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
313 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS AND TEMPS.

19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE NEAR P28, WITH TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND LOOPING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF NEW
MEXICO.  COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDED NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM P28 INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEBRASKA, WHERE IT BECAME A STATIONARY FRONT CLEAR
UP THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN.  DO THINK THIS FRONT WILL BE FOCUS
AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, AND OVERRUNNING
PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM, WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT?  HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE NPW PAST ZONE
ISSUANCE TIME, AND LET NEXT SHIFT DROP, OR UPDATE, THE NPW.
THINK THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 26 KTS WILL SUBSIDE A LITTLE TOWARD
SUNSET OR JUST BEFORE.

WITH THE FRONT NOT SCHEDULED TO WANDER TOO FAR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 8-
12 HOURS, AND LIKELY TO PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AFTER DARK,
COUPLED WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES HEADING OUR WAY, WILL GO WITH 80
POPS SE AND E, AND 60 POPS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT.  ALL MODELS ADVERTISING
5H LOW TO CUT OFF AROUND 3/06Z NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA.  AS
THIS LOW DEEPENS AND ROTATES, PERIODIC AND FREQUENT EJECTED SHORT
WAVES SHOULD HIT PARTS OF CWA ABOUT EVERY 12 TO 18 HOURS, ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHEAST PARTS.  WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES IN NEARLY ALL PERIODS OF THURS,
THURS NT, AND FRI.  IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, 70 AND 80
POPS MORE WARRANTED, WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AND
SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP JUICY DEW POINTS PUMPING INTO THERE.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE FRONT, BUT WILL STAY
CLOSE TO FWC TRENDS, BUT ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  UPPER LOW STILL
PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING AND HIGH CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE UNTIL IT DOES.  MAIN PLAYER FOR THE EARLY NEXT
WEEK PERIODS REMAINS TO BE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.  LATEST AVN AND MRF ARE
TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAYS EXTENSION OF THE AVN WITH A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  ALL MODELS
APPEAR TO BE PHASING THIS SECOND WAVE WITH THE CURRENT ONE AND AM
NOT SURE THIS WILL TRANSPIRE.  MODEL SKILL SCORES TAKING A DIVE OVER
LAST FEW DAYS AND WITH UNCERTAINTY QUITE LARGE BY EARLY WEEK, WILL
KEEP POPS GOING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN WITH
THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 051/063 054/065 051 667
GCK 050/063 053/065 048 667
EHA 049/062 049/064 049 466
LBL 052/064 054/065 050 667
HYS 051/059 050/062 050 787
P28 060/074 058/069 057 887

.DDC...NPW WIND ADVISORY TIL 03/00Z WEST OF A WAKEENEY TO DODGE CITY
TO MEADE LINE.  KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.

BURKE/POAGE