Lightning Strike in Kansas, June 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2001

PRIMARY FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH TIMING. HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS WELL AS
WIND DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. AVN APPEARS TO HAVE A LOT MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND REALLY DROPS 850MB
TEMPS DOWN IN THAT AREA. THE NGM WAS A MUCH MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT
TO THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT...THE ETA/AVN ARE N/NW. PREFERRED THE
ETA/MESO-ETA.

SAW SOME ACC DEVELOP ALONG AXIS OF 850MB JET AND THETA-E RIDGE.
EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TONIGHT. AM STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIP POSSIBLY BACK BUILDING DOWN THAT AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...HOWEVER PRECIP CHCS ARE VERY SLIGHT.
WILL LEAVE OUT THIS TIME TO AVOID THE FLIP-FLOP FCST. ALSO THINK
PRECIP CHCS DURING THE DAY WED ARE QUITE SLIM... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. AM INCLINED TO TAKE PRECIP OUT FOR THOSE
AREAS DURING THE DAY. OF COURSE IF THE AVN VERIFIES THEN ALL BETS
ARE OFF. OTHERWISE 40-50 POPS WED NIGHT STILL LOOK GOOD.

AM LOOKING FOR A REASON TO LEAVE PRECIP CHCS IN FOR FRI AND SAT...
AND AM NOT FINDING ANY. LOOKS LIKE ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRIES OUT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AFTER THU. NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE SOME RETURN
FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP
WOULD BE NORTH AND WEST OF FCST AREA AND CANNOT PINPOINT A BEST CHC
FOR RAIN.

IF AVN VERIFIES...WE COULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
KS DURING THE DAY WED AND THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER. HOWEVER AM LEANING TOWARD THE ETA AND THINK SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY. 850MB TEMPS OF GREATER THAN 22C ARE PROGGED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WHICH IS SIMILAR TO TODAY. WILL THEREFORE
STICK CLOSE TO GOING FCST TEMPS. CURRENT FCST TEMPS FOR THE REST OF
THE FCST ALSO LOOK GOOD.

THANKS FOR COORD...TOP.

FCSTID = 7/NRR
ICT   72  95  67  80 /  10  10  50  10
HUT   72  94  64  79 /  10  10  50  10
EWK   73  95  66  80 /  10  10  50  10
EQA   74  94  67  80 /  10   5  50  10
WLD   72  96  67  80 /   5   5  50  20
RSL   71  90  60  79 /  20  20  50   0
GBD   72  91  62  79 /  10  20  50   0
SLN   73  92  64  80 /  20  20  50  10
MPR   73  93  65  80 /  10  10  50  10
CFV   71  92  71  83 /   5   5  50  30
CNU   71  91  70  83 /  10   5  50  30
K88   71  91  70  82 /  10   5  50  30

.ICT...NONE.