Damaging Wind in Kansas, July 27, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2001

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURING A FAIRLY FLAT
WEST TO EAST PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. AMIDST THE MEAN BRANCH OF
WESTERLY FLOW...MAIN UPPER LOW WAS FOUND ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. YET ANOTHER WAVE WAS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN COLORADO.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
NCNTRL SD...WITH A TROUGH/WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO
NCNTRL NEB...AND THEN FURTHER SW INTO PORTIONS OF SW NEB. VARIOUS
OTHER OUTFLOWS WERE STILL EVIDENT FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE ANY CHANCES FOR RA/TSRA TONIGHT...AND
THEN DEGREE OF WARM-UP INTO NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF
OVERALL PATTERN. 12Z ETA/AVN/NGM IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48/60 HOURS...ALTHOUGH AVN A LITTLE STRONGER/LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS HANDLING OF SASKATCHEWAN WAVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD THIS EVENING. WITH SEVERAL UPPER
WAVES AND WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...LET ALONE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...PROBABLY PRUDENT TO HAVE
AT LEAST MINIMAL POPS IN THIS EVENING. 20Z LAPS DATA INDICATING
UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG CAPE IN PORTIONS OF THE NEB CWA...MAINLY IN
AREAS E OF GRI WHERE SUFFICIENT CLEARING HAS OCCURRED. RELATIVELY LOW
CIN NOTED N/E OF GRI. ANY ACTIVITY IN NEB CWA THAT WOULD DEVELOP
SHOULD BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED...WITH BETTER RA CHANCES INTO NE/ERN
NEB. OTHER FOCUS OF STORMS COULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF WEAK WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CNTRL/SRN KS...AND THIS ELEVATED ACTIVITY
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF NCNTRL KS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...GRADUAL
WAA...AND SOMEWHAT LESS SFC DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AT LEAST
BE A GOOD 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

ON SUNDAY...WAA INCREASES EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...IN ADDITION TO BETTER MIXING. THIS WHICH
WILL HELP TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING UNDER
RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE SKIES. TEMPS COULD BE APPROACHING UPPER 90S IN
KS CWA ON SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARD MID WEEK. MRF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW RELATIVELY FEW OUTLIERS IN AUGMENTATION OF
OVERALL PATTERN...SO CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION IS HEIGHTENED. NATURE
OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS. ANY THREAT OF NOCTURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER IF MEAN RIDGE
POSITION INITIALLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...
MINIMAL RA CHANCES MIGHT BE NEEDED MID WpEEK. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY
AT THIS POINT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SEEMINGLY WAY UNDERDONE ON
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

COORDINATED WITH OAX AND LBF.

.GID...NONE.

GUYER