Hail in Kansas, August 14, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
322 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2001

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS TONIGHT, THEN HIGH TEMPS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

LOOKING AT THE 19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED WARM FRONT PUSHING STEADILY
NORTH, EXTENDING FROM NEAR LXN IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST
TO NEAR SLN THEN ICT IN KANSAS, THEN FARTHER SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
NORTHERN LOUISIANA.  A LEE SIDE TROUGH WAS SETTING UP NICELY FROM
NEAR AKO SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF LHX IN EASTERN COLORADO.  THINK THE
CURRENT WARM FRONT MAY SAG BACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNDOWN,
ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS BOUNDARY TO GET ESTABLISHED FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  AT THE SAME TIME, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED
A COUPLE OF WRINKLES (I.E., SHORT WAVES) IN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND WYOMING.  FURTHER, ANOTHER SMALL
UPPER FEATURE IN THE FLOW WAS CROSSING EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN MOST PART OF CWA LATER
TONIGHT.  PLAN TO KEEP GOING POPS OF 60% NORTH, AND 40% EVERYWHERE
ELSE.  LOW TEMPS COULD BE REACHED EARLY TONIGHT, WITH CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASING IN DEPTH AFTER 06Z.

MODEL INITIALIZATION SHOWED THE ETA WAS BEST AT 5H, WITH THE NGM
SHOWING MUCH TOO WARM HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S.  WILL LEAN TOWARD
A COMPROMISE OF THE ETA/AVN, SINCE BOTH INITIALIZED CLOSE TO THE
12Z 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHT FIELD.  THIS WILL MEAN A LOW TEMPS 5-6
DEGREES LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS ONLY 2-3 DEGREES
LOWER.  SOME SUN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND HELP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO RISE BY LATE IN THE DAY.  WILL KEEP 20% POPS WEST
AND 30% POPS EAST WEDNESDAY, THEN DROP ALL AREAS TO 20% POPS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NGM BRINGS SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP BACK INTO WESTERN CWA THURSDAY,
BUT WILL FOLLOW THE LEAD TO THE ETA AND AVN AND KEEP THINGS PRECIP-
FREE FOR NOW.  DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP
THURSDAY, UNLESS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CWA IN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
12Z UKMET MODEL WAS USED FOR THIS FORECAST.  WE BELIEVE THAT THE 12Z
AVN IS MUCH TO AMPLIFIED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY CLOSED LOW BY DAY 5.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS AS
THE 72HR UKMET SHOWS VERY HIGH 700MB RHS ACROSS THE WEST.  WE
PREFER A WARMER SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE RENEWAL
OF A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND STRONG LEE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE WARMING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 067/086 061/084 058 422
GCK 066/086 060/084 058 422
EHA 065/084 059/082 058 422
LBL 067/087 062/085 060 422
HYS 066/085 060/085 059 632
P28 071/091 066/088 062 432

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/FINCH