Hail in Kansas, August 12, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SUN AUG 12 2001

CHALLENGES ARE EXTENT OF PRECIP TONIGHT...HIGHS MON AND EXTENT OF
PRECIP TUE NIGHT.

LITTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS TODAY BUT BELIEVE ETA IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER REPRESENTING DETAILS OF UPPER AIR PICTURE IN CEN AND SOUTH
PLAINS AREA. WILL GO WITH ETA.

BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT STILL ADVANCING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ALONG W
KS/SW NEB BORDER ATTM. BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH
BEFORE GOING STATIONARY. EXPECT IT TO STOP NEAR/NORTH OF I-70 IN MY
CWA DURING LATE PM/EARLY EVENING. THEN RETREAT NE (IN ALL
PRACTICALITY DISSIPATE) IN A VERY WEAK FASHION DURING TUE AM.

TONIGHT WILL GO WITH GENERALLY 30 POP NORTH OF I-70/BEHIND BOUNDARY.
STEERING CURRENTS WEAK FROM NW BUT SYSTEM MOVEMENT GENERALLY
CONTROLLED BY W TO NW FLOW ALOFT FROM S NEB NORTHWARD. THINK ANY
TSRAS THAT FORM WILL BE MOSTLY BEHIND FRONT DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT DUE
TO FRONTAL SFC AND WILL GENERALLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST. ALSO MOST OF NW
KS IS MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE FROM HIGH ALOFT THAN FROM BOUNDARY
NORTH INTO NEB (PW 1.3 IN MCK FOR EXAMPLE). ALL ABOVE ALSO SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED BY WEAK S/W (UVV) MOVING EAST ACROSS S NEB. REMAINDER OF
CWA TO HAVE 10-20 POP.

MODELS SHOW MUCH SUNSHINE AND DRYING AGAIN MON AS RIDGE MAKES
ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO BUILD OVER MY CWA. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND ABOVE GUID TEMPS IN MID 80S TO 90+.

MON NIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS NEAR GUID/NORMAL.

TUE MODELS SHOW S/W BEGINNING TO APPROACH IN NW FLOW FROM ID/WY
AREA. WILL GO WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WORDING OVER MOST OF
CWA...BUT STAY WITH PC IN EAST. LEE TROUGH SHOWS DEVELOPMENT SO
THINK TUE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AGAIN. FAIRLY STRONG UVV IN ADVANCE S/W
MOVES INTO NE CO DURING LATE DAY SO WILL GO WITH 30 POPS THERE FOR
PM TSRAS AND LESSER POPS TO S AND E.

SFC FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA DURING LATE NIGHT TUE AND EARLY WED
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY UPPER S/W. WILL GO WITH CLDY AND 30 POPS
EVERYWHERE (FOR NOW) TUE NIGHT DUE TO ALL ABOVE.

IN EXTENDED APPEARS MRF/ECM IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. TSRAS TO HANG
ON PART OF DAY WED AS S/W CLEARS CWA GOING ESE. TEMPS COOL 10
DEGREES OR SO THANKS TO COOL FRONT. DRYING LATE IN DAY AND THRU THU
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWING SFC HIGH AT MAX THU NIGHT/FRI SO THINK FRI
AM TO BE LOWESTS TEMPS (50S) THIS GO-ROUND. DRY FRI WITH SLOW INC IN
TEMPS. SAT MODELS SEEM TO SHOW WEAK S/W WHOSE ONLY AFFECT MAY BE TO
BRING BETTER CHANCE TSRAS. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS OVER WEEKEND AS
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO DOMINATE AND SHOULD SEE DRY SUN
WITH TEMPS IN 60S TO 80S.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC