Hail in Indiana, May 17, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WHETHER TO MENTION THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TODAYS GROUP.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS WELL DEFINED VORT LOBES MOVING THROUGH
AREAS NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM LIES FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT
LAKES.  QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION IS FIRING IN THE PLAINS WITH THE
AID OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE...THE MCS OVER IL AND E KY HAVE BEGUN
TO FIZZLE OUT DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING OVER THOSE AREAS.
70 DEG C DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE POISED OVER NORTHERN MO. ETA FOR
SOME REASON SHOWS THESE 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. I AM NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT
THE ETA ALSO SHOWS SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH N KY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BE FROM THE CONVECTION THAT FIRED
OVER SW IN EARLIER TONIGHT. IF THESE BOUNDARIES DO MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEY COULD SPARK OFF A FEW WIDELY THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW
THE CONFIDENCE FACTOR IS LOW THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT FOR
CONTINUITY SAKE WE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING TO FLATTEN
OUT DUE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF IN AND IL. THE ETA IS THE SLOWEST IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY SOUTH WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL PUSH.
WE WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY ALSO SEE A BOUNDARY DROP FROM THIS
ACTIVITY AND HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION SINCE THE
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWFA. AVN SHOWS THE
MOST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT REALLY NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO BITE ON. THUS...WE WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PACKAGE.

.SDF...NONE

COX

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-067-180000-

CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1130 AM EDT THU MAY 17 2001

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OHIO TO CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE
TODAY. ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL PREVAIL. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
THE BLUEGRASS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.