Damaging Wind in Idaho, August 10, 2001

SOUTHEAST IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
240 PM MDT FRI AUG 10 2001

ISOLATED CELLS BLOSSOMING OVER MACKAY AND MOVING INTO ARCO DESERT.
UPPER LOW OFF NORTHERN CAL COAST WITH SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ID.  SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL ID
RESOLVED WELL IN NEW MESO-ETA MODEL AND WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS
DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST WITH SUNSET SO WILL GO WITH 10-20% POPS FOR
WESTERN PART OF CWA AND 0-10% POPS ELSEWHERE.  STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION OVER UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS LATER TONIGHT HENCE WILL GO WITH 20-30% POPS FOR IPR AND
S14.  ON SAT MESO-ETA BRINGS IN NEXT PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OFFSHORE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SO WILL
GO WITH 10-20% POPS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA.  AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUN...THIS WILL OPEN AREA UP TO SW FLOW
ALOFT/VORT FEATURE AND BUILDING H7/H5 THETA-E RIDGE OVER PIH CWA.
THUS WILL GO WITH 20-30% POPS MOST OF AREA WITH 40% POPS AT MLD/U78.
SFC DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AND WITH EXPECTED DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL DROP MINS NEAR LOWS LAST NIGHT.

EXTENDED...EXTENDED PROGS AGREE ON KEEPING AREA UNDER UPPER RIDGE WITH
CLOSED LOW NOW EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE.  ECMWF IS THE ODD MAN OUT WITH
A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE SOLUTION.  THE PIH CWA STAYS ON WESTERN FLANK OF
UPPER HIGH WITH MONSOONAL CONVECTION MON-WED.  INCOMING TRAJECTORY OF
DRY AIR FOR THU-FRI WILL SHUTDOWN TSRA THUS WILL KEEP AREA PCPN FREE
FOR LAST 2 DAYS.  A GRADUAL WARMUP THU INTO FRI AS MRF THICKNESSES
INCREASE THROUGH PERIOD.

TA

BYI 54/91/50/95 221

.KSFX WSR-88D...OPERATIONAL...VCP 21.

PIH UB 052/091 053/095 055 04221

.PIH...NONE