Tornado in Florida, September 14, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

ANOTHER DAY OF WAITING FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE TS BEFORE
MAKING MY FORECAST.  WE HAVE ALREADY UPGRADED OUR INLAND WIND WATCH
TO A WARNING.  BANDS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE WORKING THERE WAY NORTH
FROM THE STORM WHICH COULD WREAK HAVOC ON THE RIVER FLOODING
SITUATION IN DESOTO AND HARDEE COUNTIES.

I PLAN NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...PRETTY MUCH GOING WITH
PERSISTENCE.  WE FINALLY HAVE GOTTEN A SATELLITE PIX AND YOU CAN
SEE THE CENTER OF GABBY IS PRETTY MUCH EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CONVECTION...BUT SAT PIX AND THE TLH RADAR SHOW SOME SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM.  I WILL LOWER POPS FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT REMOVE POPS
COMPLETELY.  BUT AGAIN MY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM.

JUST BASED ON A LITTLE EXTRAPOLATION I AM THINKING THAT SATURDAY I
CAN CLEAR THE WEATHER OUT A BIT.  WE PROBABLY WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL
THE LONG LIVED FLOOD WATCH BY LATE TODAY...BUT THAT IS A DECISION I
WILL LEAVE TO THE DAY SHIFT.  I WILL NOT REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AS
THERE LOOKS LIKE A WEAK WAVE MAY BE ADVECTING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE WE GO BACK TO EASTERLY FLOW AND A
SHOT AT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

THANK FOR THE COORDINATION MIA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

TPA TB 083/073 087/071 086 +411
FMY TB 082/073 088/073 090 +311

.TBW...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL TBW COASTAL AND NEAR SHORE
       WATERS FROM BONITA SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER...
    ...HURRICANE WATCH FROM BONITA SPRINGS TO TARPON SPRINGS...
    ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING TODAY FOR SUMTER...POLK
       HARDEE...DESOTO...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
    ...FLOOD WATCH THRU SAT ALL ZONES.
    ...SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

SOBIEN