Tornado and Hail in Florida, March 13, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

...EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS HAVE SHUT DOWN THE KMLB WSR-88D FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WAS TRAINING EWD WITH A SLOW SOUTH DRIFT. STRONG CONVECTION TO BRUSH
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANALYSIS OF
LOCAL SOUNDING AND EXPECTED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOWS SURFACE BASED CAPE APCHG 3000 J/KG WITH K INDICES
NEAR 30 IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREAS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.70 WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITHIN
THE STRONGER TRAINING CELLS. REFERENCING THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONG STORMS WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE
WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING. ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE FOCUSED TO
ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE
PENINSULA.

WILL LOOK AT RAISING POPS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS AND SOME OTHER
TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS AS LATEST MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR STORMS. HIGHER SEAS MAINLY OFFSHORE ATTM.

.MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR INDIAN RIVER...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND
       OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DUE TO HIGH DISPERSION INDICES
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY FOR BREVARD...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND
       SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-131600-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
600 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS LAKE...SEMINOLE...AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES SOUTH. TODAYS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE AND A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES THE AREA...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND LAKES.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS
AVAILABLE AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

GITTINGER