Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, June 22, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

CURRENT/TONIGHT...STORMS GOT AN EARLY START TODAY...THEREFORE MAY BE
MOSTLY DONE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND TWEAK TONIGHT
POPS LAST SECOND BEFORE SENDING ZONES. CURRENTLY...EAST COAST BREEZE
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. SCT CONV IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BREVARD...OSCEOLA AND COUNTIES SOUTH AHEAD OF MAIN CONV
APPROACHING FROM WEST COAST. WILL WATCH STORMS VERY CLOSELY AS
ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH NEW STORMS AND EAST COAST
BREEZE...AND SOME POTENTIAL FROM STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.

SAT...PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT SAT AS WEAK FRONTAL TROF
APPROACHES THE FL PANHANDLE AND H85 WINDS INCREASE FROM WEST AT 15
TO 20 KTS. THIS WILL MAKE THE EAST COAST BREEZE MUCH LESS LIKELY
NORTH OF THE CAPE TOMORROW...AND WILL DELAY IT TO THE SOUTH. RIBBON
OF HIGHEST PWAT AIR WILL STRETCH ACROSS CWA WITH AVN AND NGM
INDICATING PWATS REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND AND SHOWING 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH PWATS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. H5 TROF REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER THE ERN GOMEX THROUGH
SUN...W/ -9 TO -10 C H5 TEMPS CONTINUING AND GOOD UPR DIV MOVING
OVER CWA. ALL ABOVE POINT TO A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SAT...ALTHOUGH
STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKER AND THERE WILL BE A LACK OF AN EAST COAST
BREEZE. REGARDLESS OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE...EXPECT ENOUGH ACTIVITY
ALONG WEST COAST BREEZE FOR LIKELY POPS. SVR THREAT LOOKS LOW
WITHOUT EAST COAST BREEZE.

SUN...FRONTAL TROF WILL STALL OVER SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE. AVN
HOLDS ON TO MOISTURE RIBBON AND NEAR 2 INCH PWATS EARLY SUN...WHILE
ETA DROPS PWATS TO 1.6 INCHES. BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA...SO EXPECT THE TO BE A LITTLE
LESS MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH SUN. PGRAD LOOKS TO RELAX SLIGHTLY AGAIN
AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY RETURN AT LEAST SOUTH OF CAPE.
WITH A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE...THINGS MAY START A LITTLE LATER SUN
AND CUD SEE A SEE BREEZE COLLISION LATE. NGM GUIDANCE POPS SEEM A
LITTLE LOW AND STICK CLOSER TO MAV. INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE TO WORD AS
GOOD CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS.

EXTENDED...FRONTAL TROUGH STALLS NORTH OF AREA SUN AND DISSIPATES
MON. THE WEST ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW TO RESUME ENHANCED BY
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MODELS CUT OFF THE UPR LOW OVER THE SE US MON
AND THEN RETROGRADE IT WEST BEFORE PICKING IT BACK UP IN LATE WEEK.
WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING OF A NIGHTTIME SHOWER
MENTION FOR THE COAST AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
INTERIOR WITH EAST FLOW RETURN.

MARINE...INCREASED PGRAD WILL RAISE WINDS POSSIBLY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NORTHERN WATERS SAT...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH BY SUN AS GRADIENT
RELAXES. NO FLAGS. MAIN CONCERN IS EASTERLY MOVING STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE IN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PRELIMS (1ST PERIOD POPS ESPECIALLY SUB TO CHANGE)...

DAB TT 071/089 072/089 069 3635
MCO TT 072/087 072/089 071 3635
MLB TT 072/089 073/088 071 3635 88

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GITTINGER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
222200-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1153 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST AND WILL APPROACH EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR IN A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME STANDING WATER IN LOW
SPOTS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

BOATERS...BEACH VISITORS AND ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE WEATHER TODAY AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. PLAN TO TAKE SHELTER BEFORE THE
STORMS ARE OVERHEAD.