Waterspout in Florida, June 21, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2001

MODELS SIMILAR ENOUGH IN BUILDING 50H RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MTNS
WHICH LEANS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE E SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL FLA SLIDES SE OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA TO JUST S OF AREA AS 50H RIDGE OVER ATLC SLIDES SE A
LITTLE AS WELL BUT GETS STUBBORN IN LONG TERM HALTING PROGRESSION OF
TROUGH SE.

SURFACE AND UPPER WINDS VEER TOWARDS SW SLOWLY TONIGHT BUT MORE
VIGOROUSLY FRI IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE SYNOPTIC CHANGES. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER HOVERING BETWEEN 1.9-2.0 AND WITH SEA BREEZES
EXPECTED BOTH COASTS FRI AND ON E COAST SATURDAY (GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE), EMPHASIS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION SHIFTS
FROM INTERIOR AND W TO INTERIOR AND E FRI AND SAT WITH NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY W COAST FRI AND SAT NIGHT.

PLAN TO FOLLOW MAV GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY TEMPS) AND POPS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT BUT WILL UP POPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

IN THE EXTENDED, THE W RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHOVE NE AND ATLC RIDGE
MOVES LITTLE STALLING TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS. SYSTEM PERSISTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EVENTUALLY MOVING N TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS THE ATLC RIDGE
BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER N FLA/SE U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. GENERALLY
AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THE PATTERN COULD BECOME WHAT IS NORMALLY
EXPECTED WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY E WITH DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W BY
TUE BUT BECOMING WEKK DEVELOPED BY THU AND FRI.

IN THE COASTAL ZONES, WINDS VEER TO S TO SW AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY TOWARD A SE FLOW AGAIN GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS THEN WINDS
INCREASING E 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUE.

NO HIGHLIGHTS FIRE WEATHER. EVEN BROWARD FIRE SHOULD GET SOME
PRECIPITATION.

MIA TT 078/089 077/091 077 1527373
PBI TT 075/090 073/091 075 1527473=

.MIA...NONE.

FLZ063-066>075-212000-

SOUTH FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1115 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2001

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS COASTAL AREAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE FROM THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE SOUTHEAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS WESTWARD. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 45
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...THEREFORE SPOTTERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TODAY AND SHOULD MONITOR THE SITUATION. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH...COMBINED WITH A LOW
TIDE BETWEEN 230 AND 300 PM...WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. MARINERS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT AND
LOOKOUT FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MIA.