Hail in Florida, June 20, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2001

CURRENTLY: SLOWER START TO CONVECTION AS PLANNED. EXCEPT FOR A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSHOWERS IN DESOTO COUNTY ALL THINGS ARE QUIET SO
FAR. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOUNDARY COLLISION SHOULD LIGHT
THINGS UP...HOWEVER.

FORECAST: 12Z MODELS STILL SUPPORTING THE SAME GENERAL TREND THAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED. THURSDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL FA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE EARLIER NORTH OF TAMPA BAY THURSDAY
WITH SOME MORNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE COMING IN OFF THE GULF.
CONVECTION WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE
WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL TROF DEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ALL AREAS LATER
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CLIMO TEMPS EXPECTED THURSDAY...THEN
WARMER NIGHTS ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE: NO HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED: SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES BACK NORTHWARD. AVN SHOWS A PRETTY STRONG VORT
MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF AND PASSING
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...WHICH SUPPORTS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN
FORECAST.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 73/92/75/91 4545
FMY 73/92/73/92 4545

.TBW...NONE.

ALSHEIMER