Damaging Winds in Florida, June 18, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
210 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2001

CURRENT...WEAK TUTT TYPE LOW NEAR KVRB ATTM AND MOVING NW-WD ALONG
THE EAST COAST. NORMALLY...AREAS UNDER THE SUBSIDENT NORTH/WEST
SIDES OF THESE FEATURES WIND UP BEING CONVECTIVELY SUPPRESSED TO
SOME DEGREE WITH THE ACTIVE/ASCENDENT SIDES TO THE SOUTH/EAST. CIRC
WEAK ON RAOBS AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR RATHER SUBTLE.
RAOBS ALSO DENOTE THAT THIS WEAK FEATURE IS SHALLOW AS WELL...ONLY
BTWN 400 AND 250MB. MAY SEE THE ACTIVE SIDE OF THIS FEATURE BEGIN TO
ROTATE UP ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE'LL SEE
HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS OCCUR. WOULD PROBABLY MAKE
ONLY A 10% TWEAK AT BEST FOR TONIGHT IF NEEDED.

TUE/WED...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN UNANIMITY TAKING THE WEAK VORT N
ALONG THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING THEN NE AWAY FROM THE
AREA BY TUE EVENING. IGNORED THE ETA SOLN WHICH DEVELOPS A WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE BENEATH IT NEAR 30N78W AND PUTS A DENT IN THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SFC-H70 FLOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...AVERAGING
ESE@10KT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. PGRAD JUST A TAD WEAKER ON WED BUT FOCUS STILL
WILL BE ON THE INTERIOR/WEST. WILL KEEP INTERIOR/COASTAL GROUP WITH
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SPLIT OUT FOR 1) SMALL NOCTURNAL POPS DUE TO ESE
FLOW BEING A SCOSH STRONGER AND 2) SLIGHTLY HIGHER (10%) EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GIVEN PROXIMITY TO LAKE OKEE.

EXTENDED...TROUGH WHICH CARVES OUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY SPLITS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM PIECE ZIPPING OFF
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHERN PIECE PINCHING OFF ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH....RUNNING UP AGAINST THE ATLC SUBTROP RIDGE THEN
GETTING PUSHED WESTWARD. THIS PORTENDS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHWARD WITH PRES OVER THE ATLC RISING EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEANING
THE RETURN TO A SW FLOW REGIME WOULD LIKELY END AFTER 2-3 DAYS.

MARINE...SAME DEAL, DIFFERENT DAY. NOT MANY MARINE ISSUES TO CONTEND
WITH IN ABSENCE OF WINDS GREATER THAN 10KT...SAVE FOR INCREASED
CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING MARINE LTG STORMS NEAR SHORE FRI/SAT.

PRELIM CCF...
DAB BB 072/087 072/088 072 1313
MCO TT 072/090 072/091 072 4544
MLB BB 074/087 073/088 073 2323=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/F;IRE WX...WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
182100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2001

...LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK BEGINS TODAY...

...LIGHTNING STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE INTERIOR...

VERY LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL ALLOW BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO FORM BY AROUND NOON TODAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARIES AS THEY PUSH WELL
INLAND. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE
SEA BREEZES AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING STORMS BEGIN TO INTERACT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES EITHER
SIDE OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE.

WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE VERY LIGHT OVER FLORIDA. AS
A RESULT...STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY...PERHAPS A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AT 5 MPH. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP TOWARD THE
INTERIOR AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL OCCUR IN A FEW STORMS...HOWEVER...AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WHERE THE COASTAL SEA BREEZES
COME TOGETHER. URBAN REGIONS...AS WELL AS SMALL STREAMS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...WILL BE PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. .IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ALL
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POTENTIAL KILLERS. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST
SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES AS LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE WELL BEYOND THE
AUDIBLE RANGE OF THUANDER

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

CRISTALDI