Hail in Florida, June 13, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2001

LOOKS LIKE NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM W FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN BY SEVERAL
FEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANT FOOTPRINT OF ALLISON TO OUR N IN
THE SHORT TERM...AND GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF MEAN H50 RIDGE INTO
THE W U.S. FOR THE MEDIUM TERM.  FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THAT MEANS
MORE OF THE SAME...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN BELOW CLIMO VALUES
EVERYWHERE...PRIMARILY HELD TO INTERIOR COS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS TIME AROUND...WITH ONLY A FEW
MINOR DIFFERENCES.  NGM/AVN ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN POSITION OF H50
SHEAR AXES MOVING BETWEEN ALLISONS REMAINS AND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE H50 RIDGE NOW PARKED OVER S FL.  THIS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ETA...WHICH IS MORE POTENT WITH ALLISONS REMAINS AND HENCE A BIT
FARTHER S...WHICH ALSO HOLDS THE SHEAR AXES ACROSS N FL RATHER THAN
S GA.  THE PERSISTENCE OF ALLISONS REMAINS LEADS ME TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ETA SOLN.

SHORT TERM:
TSTMS ONGOING OVER INTERIOR COS...BUT NOT HANGING AROUND LONG AS
THEY PUSH QUICKLY NE.  WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION ON WHETHER TO
HANG ONTO PCPN MENTION OVER INTERIOR.  OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF PCPN IN LEVY CO OVERNIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SHEAR AXES
AND PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  ON THURS...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW
POPS EVERYWHERE...WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER INTERIOR (SEA BREEZE
COLLISION ZONE) AND LEVY CO.  THINGS MAY QUIET DOWN THU NIGHT AND
FRI AS DEEP SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY PUSH ONE LAST SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA FRI...AND
WITH CONTINUED COOL POCKET ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT TSTMS
ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED:
DEEPER DRYING TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT...AND
WILL REMOVE POPS FROM COASTAL COS AS NW FLOW CONTINUES.  STILL A
PREMISE FOR SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER INTERIOR...BUT WILL TWEAK
BACK TO ISOLD.  ON SUN/MON...APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL DIE TO OUR
N...BUT ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MAY TRIGGER ISOLD/SCT PCPN DESPITE
LOW LVL WNW FLOW.  WEAK SFC RIDGE HOLDS OVER CWFA TUE/WED...SO WILL
STICK WITH CURR WORDING OF SCT PCPN.

MARINE:  CONDS CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN AS GRADIENT SLACKENS.
WINDS MAY TRY TO PICKUP BY SAT...ESP N...AS REMAINS OF ALLISON
ATTEMPT TO HOOK UP WITH APPROACHING MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH.  DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD AT 10 KNOTS.

FIRE WX:  HIGH RH AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTS.  BUT...
LACK OF RAINFALL AND DRY GROUND...ESP CENTRAL AND N COASTAL COS...
MEANS THREAT OF SPREADING WILDFIRES CONTINUES.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA BB 077/092/077/092 -2-1
FMY BB 075/093/075/093 -212

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH