Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, June 11, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG WEST COAST BREEZE N OF
TBW...WITH WELL-DEFINED EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY TAKING SHAPE JUST
INLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT EAST COAST BREEZE TO REMAIN OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INTERACTION BETWEEN
EASTWARD MOVING STORMS/OUTFLOWS AND ATLANTIC BOUNDARY LEADING TO
BEST COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED MID-LEVEL VORT AND SURFACE CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH EX-ALLISON MUCH BETTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. WITH
SYSTEM REMAINING TRAPPED SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECT CONTINUED
SLOW ENE MOTION ACROSS THE SE STATES. SUCH A TRACK WOULD KEEP
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE FORCING N OF CWA..WITH WEAK REGION OF
PERIPHERIAL SUBSIDENCE POSSIBLY AFFECTING N PENINSULA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN SLOW MOTION...ADVERTISED NORTHWARD SHIFT OF SOUTH
FLORIDA RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DELAYED ABOUT 24 HOURS. EXPECT CURRENT
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH W/SW STEERING FLOW AND
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT TO LIMIT/RESTRICT ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE TUESDAY AND DELAY DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL
COAST. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY FROM OFFSHORE STEERING TO
ONSHORE STEERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF...WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL STILL DOMINATE...BUT WITH LIGHER
SURFACE GRADIENT...EARLIER ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FORMATION LIKELY WITH
INTERACTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF COASTAL COUNTIES.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTH. RIDGE SHOULD REACH CENTRAL PENINSULA THURSDAY...MEANING MID
DAY STORMS OVER EASTERN COUNTIES THEN SHIFTING TO INTERIOR COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...ACTIVITY WILL STILL
FAVOR THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. BY FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
REACH LATITUDE OF DAYTONA BEACH...WITH MAJORITY OF CWA WITHIN
ONSHORE FLOW...ACTING TO PUSH STORMS INLAND DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE
LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO...THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH
NEAR 30 PERCENT DIURNAL COVERAGE.

WEEKEND...WILL SUSTAIN CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF ASSUMING RIDGE
WILL HOLD TO NORTH OF CWA AND PERSIST CLIMO PATTERN OF MORNING/MID
DAY CONVECTION EASTERN CWA AND AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMING OVER
INTERIOR.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD MID-LATE WEEK.

FIRE WX...HAVE RAISED FIRE WX WATCH FOR N HALF OF CWA TUESDAY GIVEN
HIGH DISPERSION INDEX VALUES DUE TO WARM TEMPS...HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS...AND 15 KNOTS TRANSPORT WINDS.

DAB BB 070/092 070/091 070 65333
MCO BB 070/092 070/092 071 65231
MLB BB 072/092 072/089 073 65432

.MLB...FIRE WX WATCH TUESDAY FOR HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES
       OSCEOLA/BREVARD/ORANGE/SEMINOLE/LAKE/VOLUSIA.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
112100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1126 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2001

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TODAY...

A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES INLAND. WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW...THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE INLAND...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM OVER
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

BY THIS EVENING...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG NEAR THE
EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS THE THE APPROACHING WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN MAY RESULT.

REMEMBER ALL LIGHTNING STORMS PRODUCE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES...MOVE TO SHELTER
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERWAYS BY MID AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL STEER
SCATTERED STORMS OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. BOATERS AND BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR STORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. PLAN AHEAD
FOR THE STORMS BEFORE THEY REACH YOUR LOCATION.

SKYWARN STORM SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND
SELF ACTIVATE IF STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH...DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER HAIL...TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...
OR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE RELAYED TO THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

SPRATT