Hail in Florida, August 10, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2001

CURRENT/TONIGHT...WEST COAST BREEZE MOVING INLAND BEST TO THE NORTH
OF TPA...WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER WRLY FLOW THERE. EC
SEA BREEZE NOTICEABLE SOUTH OF MLB WITH SCT RW/TRWS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE CAPE...THE SEA BREEZE IS PINNED AND WINDS AT
DAB REMAIN SW. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE NORTH AS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY BE REQUIRED TO GET THINGS STARTED THERE.
WILL KEEP SCT POPS ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND NRN COAST OVERNIGHT...
ALTHOUGH LAKE CO MAY BE ODD MAN OUT AS COLLISIONS OCCUR MOSTLY TO
THE EAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE
THE TRACK OF A TUTT OVER THE ATL AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOOKING A WV IMAGERY...THE TUTT OVER THE
ATL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS MVG NW...WHILE A SECONDARY SPINUP HAS
DROPPED SW ACROSS NRN FL INTO THE NE GOMEX. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED
THIS FEATURE IN PAST RUNS AND CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS AT 12Z.
LOOKS LIKE THE GOMEX UPR TROF AND ASSC DRYING WILL DRIFT WEST WHILE
THE TUTT OVER THE ATL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW AND
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DEVELOPING BROAD ERN US TROF AND S/WV.
WITH E CEN FL REMAINING MOSTLY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...I DONT
BELIEVE WE WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED...AND AM NOT BUYING THE DRYING
IN THE AVN MODEL...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA/NGM SOLUTIONS AND STICK WITH THE
HIGHER FWC POPS FOR SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS. AT LOW LEVELS EXPECT THE
RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN NEAR OKEECHOBEE THROUGH SUNDAY. WRLY H85 WINDS
WILL BECOME SW AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPR TROF REMAINS
OVER THE ERN US. MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING IN THE SW FLOW...WHICH
MAY ALLOW THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND EACH
DAY. ETA/MESO ETA SHOW STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND GOOD UVM
PROFILES ASSOC WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE LATE EACH DAY. AGAIN THIS
CONVERGENCE MAY MOVE WEST EACH DAY WITH WEAKENING SW FLOW...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN MORE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY TO
THE NORTH WERE LOW LVL SW FLOW IS STRONGEST. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE OUTSTANDING...WITH PWATS LIKELY AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9
INCHES...FEEL SCT POPS AROUND 40% SHUD HANDLE TSTM COVERAGE FINE.
SRN COAST WILL CONTINUE LOWER POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT WILL
REMAIN UNIFORM 40% IN NRN COASTALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED...MODELS INCONSISTENT IN PAST DAYS OVER PLACEMENT OF
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS NEXT WEEK. LATEST AVN KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
CEN/SRN PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL SEE A DAILY VARIATION IN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR AFT TSTMS...BUT DONT SEE ANY MAJOR SWINGS IN
MOISTURE TO MAKE ME GO AGAINST A CONTINUED CLIMO POP WITH SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEA STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SLIGHT E/SE SWELL POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SEAS REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET.

PRELIMS...

DAB BB 073/092 073/092 074 2424
MCO BB 073/093 074/093 074 2424
MLB BB 073/091 074/090 075 2424    88

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...GITTINGER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI