Dust Devil in Florida, April 23, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
217 PM EDT MON APR 23 2001

CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SWWD ACROSS
SOUTH GA PROVIDING AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
THAT THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS UNDERWAY IN THE VICINITY OF CEDAR
KEY. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
CAPPED...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP.

FORECAST: DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH WARM/DRY
WEATHER WILL BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.. IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SWEEP EAST/SOUTHEAST MOVING INTO MY NORTHERN
FA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MUCH
NEEDED PRECIP. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE.

IN THE INTERIM...SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TIGHT EASTERLY
GRADIENT OF PAST TO RELAX AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER WEAKENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS (MAINLY INLAND AREAS)
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL INTRODUCE A LOW POP IN THESE AREAS. ON
WEDNESDAY PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP WILL BE BEST AS ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT FROM SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT GETS INTO THE ACT. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE AND WILL USE A BLEND...BUT WILL WORD FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED: MAY SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FAR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY ON
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPPER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE...RELAXING GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO PM SEA BREEZES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO NEAR SCEC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURVDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

THANKS FOR COORD KJAX.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
TPA BE 066/085 066/081 0123
FMY BE 066/087 067/086 -223

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL