Damaging Wind in Colorado, May 9, 2001

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
207 PM MDT WED MAY 9 2001

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  SHORT WAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.  DRY LINE IS NOT TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED...BUT WEST WINDS ARE
ADVECTING DRIER AIR TOWARD THE EASTERN BORDER.  WINDS ARE MORE
WESTERLY THAN IN THE MODELS...AND THE DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN EAST OF
OUR AREA THIS EVENING.  STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR STORMS TO INCREASE
A BIT ON THE PLAINS.  CURRENT FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES FOR TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING.
GIMMESTAD

LONG TERM DISCUSSION: WX WL BE QUITE SMLR THURS.  QUITE A BIT OF MID
TO HI LVL MSTR WL MOV THRU THE AREA LT TNGT INTO TMRW.  MDLS IN GOOD
AGMNT IN DVLPG A WV CLD ACRS FTHILLS BY SUNRISE.  WL GO MSTLY CLDY
FOR THE FNT RANGE IN THE MRNG FOR ABUNDANT HI CLDS.  ANOTHER WK
SURGE WL CROSS THE DIST TMRW ARND NOON WHICH WL SHIFT THE SFC FLOW
ARND TO THE SE.  COULD BE SLGTLY BTR CONV INITIATION TMRW AFTN...BUT
LWR LVLS WL RMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BESIDES ISOLD TSTMS OVR
THE MTNS AND FNT RANGE.  NERN PLAINS ARE BTR SITUATED TO GET SOME
RETURN MSTR FM THE SELY FLOW AND WL UP AREAL COVERAGE TO SCTD OUT
THERE.

AS RDG BLDS OVR GRT BASIN...A TRANSITORY TROF WL SWING INTO THE
DAKOTAS.  THIS WL ALLOW SELY FLOW TO BRNG MORE MSTR INTO THE PLAINS
AND AS THE TROF SINKS SWD INTO NEBR...CYCLOGENESIS WL SET UP JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE DIST.  THUS THE ATM WL BE QUITE UNSTBL FRI AND NERN
PLAINS WL BEAR WATCHING.  RDG AXIS WL BE OVR CO SUN INTO ELY NEXT WK
FOR WRMR...DRIER WX IN EXTENDED. 46

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-092000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2001

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE     BOULDER   CLEAR CREEK   DENVER       DOUGLAS
ELBERT    GILPIN       GRAND     JACKSON       JEFFERSON    LARIMER
LINCOLN   LOGAN        MORGAN    PARK          PHILLIPS     SEDGWICK
SUMMIT    WASHINGTON   WELD

SYNOPSIS:  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF
THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL END
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING.  THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
DRY...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.  THE STORMS MAY BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE.
THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.  ALONG
THE EASTERN BORDER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY:  SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

H
GIMMESTAD