Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 22, 2001

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
230 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE CONCERN...

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CAPES
OF 1200 TO 1800 J/KG OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. ACTIVITY
HELPED ALONG BY SLOW MOVING S/W TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CO.

MODELWISE...NOT MANY DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH AVN
LOOKED A LITTLE OVERDEVELOPED WITH SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE MRF CLOSELY FOR THE EXTENDED...
WITH HINTS OF SOUTHWEST MONSOON PATTERN SETTING UP.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION MOST AREAS...LEAST CHANCES
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BEHIND CENTRAL CO S/W TROUGH. FAR EASTERN
PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INITIALLY LOOK PRETTY FAR REMOVED
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO KEEP
AT LEAST ISOLATED MENTION GOING.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH MID AND UPPER FLOW WEAKENING. REMNANTS OF OLD EASTERLY WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...
WHILE TAIL END OF 250 MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE REMAINS OVER CO.
STILL PLENTIFUL LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO ANOTHER CROP
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. WEAKER MID LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO ONLY AN ISOLATED PULSE STORM AT
BEST. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET STORMS VERY FAR EAST OF I-25 WITH WEAKER
STEERING CURRENTS...AND WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO ISOLATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS. MAX TEMPS DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS...BUT WITH 700 MB TEMPS
WARMING SHOULD SEE READINGS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

SUNDAY...RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND FLATTENS SLIGHTLY
AS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BOTH ETA AND
AVN HAVE ANOTHER S/W TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE BY EVENING...WITH
AVN GENERATING QPF OF 0.25 INCHES OVER THE EAST. THUS SUSPECT A
REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH THE USUAL CHC OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD SHOW LITTLE CHANGE.

EXTENDED...MRF PROGS UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER OR JUST EAST
OF COLORADO...WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR INFLUX OF MONSOON MOISTURE...SO
WILL KEEP THE CURRENT EXTENDED GOING WITH FEW CHANGES. DESPITE UPPER
RIDGE AND WARM TEMPS ALOFT...CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.

.PUB...NONE.

PETERSEN

COZ058>081-222015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1210 PM MDT FRI JUN 22 2001

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND SOLAR HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AT MIDDAY THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
INTIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING INTO THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES ANY COMBINATION OF THE
FOLLOWING...HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS OR
WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...OR A TORNADO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.