Wildfire in California, September 27 to 28, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2001

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST AT
SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLING WEATHER AT
THE COAST. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY WARM INLAND. MOISTURE FROM
HURRICAE JULIETTE MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...12Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG 11C INVERSION THIS
MORNING AND A MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEAR 600 FEET. THIS RESULTED IN
DENSE FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS...AND THE STRONG TRAPPING INVERSION
WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE BEACHES INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPS WERE COOLER THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY IN THE COASTAL
ZONES...BUT FARTHER INLAND TEMPS WERE JUST AS WARM SO EXPECT ANOTHER
WARM TO HOT DAY IN THE INLAND...MTN AND DESERT AREAS.

SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON OUR WEATHER EXPECT TO BRING MORE COASTAL CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG AT
TIMES. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT IT WILL STILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOR CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE LATEST ON HURRICANE JULIETTE...THERE WERE BIG TIME CHANGES WITH
LAST NIGHTS MODELS. IF THEY WERE THE PERFECT PROGS...THEY ADVECT
ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO BRING RAIN NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING HOW VASTLY DIFFERENT THE SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS WERE...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE LATEST
MRF INDICATED A DEEP TROF OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
ESTABLISH A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE AVN MODEL IS NEARING COMPLETION AND
MAY SHED SOME LIGHT ON THIS DILEMMA FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE.

.SAN...NONE.

MOEDE