North Fork Black Creek near Middleburg

1. 28.00 ftHistoric flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek Basin. The approaches to the Blanding Blvd Bridge on the north side of North Fork begin to flood. Widespread inundation of numerous sides of both banks of the creek expands with many homes uninhabitable or destroyed.
2. 25.00 ftCatastrophic flooding continues throughout the North Fork Black Creek Basin. On the north bank of the North Fork, homes not elevated are rendered uninhabitable on Lazy Acres Trail. Water reaches Falcon Run Lane and Country Meadows Drive, surrounding residences in the area. On the south bank of the North Fork, Banks Road and Laurel Drive and impassable. Homes not elevated along the creek experience extensive inundation. Elevated structures along both banks of the creek begin to flood.
3. 22.00 ftConsiderable flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek Basin. Water Expands on the north bank of the North Fork beyond Trefoil Trail, impacting homes on American Way. Lazy Acres Trail is impassable in many locations with numerous structures flooded with several feet of water inside. On the south bank of the North Fork, flooding expands along Scenic Drive and homes along the creek. Scenic Drive is impassable in several places. Downstream of Blanding Blvd Bridge, flooding continues to worsen.
4. 20.01 ftDownstream of the Blanding Blvd Bridge flooding worsens along North and South Lee. Flooding expands onto Cornell and Main Street.
5. 20.00 ftSignificant flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek Basin. Flooding worsens considerably on the north bank of the North Fork along Lazy Acres Road, with numerous residences flooded, some with more than 2 feet of water inside. Access into some of these areas byLazy Acres Road becomes impossible. On the south bank of the North Fork, Scenic Drive near Wisteria becomes impassable. Numerous residences in this area flood, with up to 2 feet of water inside.
6. 18.00 ftSome homes on Hawk Haven Drive are isolated by flood waters. Flooding expands along the north bank of the North Fork along Lazy Acres Road, with water entering numerous residences. On the south bank of the North Fork, flooding expands impacting properties along Scenic Drive east of Wisteria Lane. Downstream of the Blanding Blvd Bridge, water moves under several structures on North and South Lee near the creek.
7. 16.00 ftFlooding expands into the yards of more properties along Lazy Acres Road on the north bank of the North Fork. Flooding begins further downstream of the Blanding Blvd Bridge along North and South Lee. Flooding begins on areas of the south bank of the North Fork, particularly at Scenic Drive and Enchanted Lane.
8. 15.00 ftWater begins to enter backyards of residential properties along Hawk Haven Road and Lazy Acres Road and Redbug Alley on the north bank of the North Fork. Flooding begins at Enchanted Lane on the south bank of the North Fork.
9. 13.00 ftWater begins to flood wooded areas along portions of North Fork Black Creek downstream from the gage to near Blanding Blvd.

Chance of flooding, September to November

The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 15, 2026.

Most recent crests

• August 6, 2024: 20.21 ft
• December 18, 2023: 18.24 ft
• July 8, 2021: 17.18 ft
• June 13, 2020: 17.86 ft
• June 8, 2020: 17.35 ft
• September 11, 2017: 27.89 ft
• July 31, 2017: 16.42 ft
• August 31, 2015: 11.82 ft
• March 19, 2014: 14.81 ft
• May 4, 2013: 19.15 ft

• DownstreamBlack Creek at Middleburg
• Black Creek (in MHHW)
• South Fork Black Creek at Penney Farms
• Ortega River at Argyle Forest Boulevard
• St. Johns River at Buckman Bridge (I-295) (in MHHW)
• St. Johns River at Buckman Bridge (I-295) (in MHHW)
• Cedar River at San Juan Ave Jacksonville (in MHHW)
• Julington Creek

Forecasts by the Southeast River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available. River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 48 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time.

Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.