Is Prince William County in a drought?

• D0 Abnormally dry
• D1 Moderate drought
• D2 Severe drought
• D3 Extreme drought
• D4 Exceptional drought

• D0 Abnormally dry
• D1 Moderate drought
• D2 Severe drought
• D3 Extreme drought
• D4 Exceptional drought

Weeks with some drought

336 of 1,394 (24%)

Worst category reached

D4 Exceptional drought, last the week of Aug 20, 2002

Most widespread

100% in drought, week of Jul 28, 2026

Longest spell

54 weeks, Sep 9, 2025 to Sep 15, 2026

Current spell

54 weeks, since Sep 9, 2025

Monthly outlook, Sep 2026

No drought expected

Seasonal outlook, through December 31 (issued Sep 17)

No drought expected

The monthly outlook is issued on the last day of each month, the seasonal one on the third Thursday. CPC's discussion.

Drawn from the Drought Impact Reporter and local observers.

The Drought Monitor does not issue burn bans or water restrictions. Prince William County's officials, the state forestry or fire agency, and local water utilities set them, often once drought reaches D2 or dry fuels raise the fire danger. Check the county's emergency management office or fire marshal for a ban in force, and the alerts page for red flag warnings and fire weather watches.

Central Virginia had moderate rainfall this past week, leading to some drought improvement. Most of the Carolinas into Georgia were warm and dry, however, resulting the regional degradation of drought conditions. Florida was generally wet and had drought improvement in small areas in the north, center, and south parts of the state. Meanwhile, Alabama continued to experience above normal temperatures and limited rainfall in the central to north, leading to large areas with drought degradation. There remain some areas of extreme drought in northern North Carolina, coastal South and North Carolina, and small areas in Florida.

Looking ahead

Over the next five days leading up to next Tuesday, above normal rainfall is forecast in south Florida as well as a large area in southern Wisconsin and Minnesota into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. The latter area of forecasted rainfall continues to the east through central Michigan, the southern Great Lakes, Pennsylvania, New York, and much of central and southern New England. Other locations with rainfall in the forecast this week are in the Appalachian Mountains, the western Great Plains, and the Four Corners states. Unfortunately, most of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are forecast to receive little rainfall. Dry conditions are also forecast in California, Nevada, and Washington. Much above normal temperatures are forecast to continue this week in the central and southern U.S.

The 6- to 10-day outlook (September 22-26, 2026) favors above normal temperatures continuing over nearly all of the continental United States. Areas most likely to be above normal are again the south into the southeast, plus the far north. Hawaii is also likely to be above normal. For precipitation, the Eastern Seaboard is likely to have above normal rainfall as is the Southwest. The central U.S. into the upper Midwest is likely to have below normal rainfall. Hawaii and Alaska are both likely to have above normal rain during this period.

Written by Lindsay Johnson, National Drought Mitigation Center; David Mocko, SSAI, NASA/GSFC. The national narrative.

D0 Abnormally dry

Going into or coming out of drought.

D1 Moderate drought

Some damage to crops and pastures; water shortages developing.

D2 Severe drought

Crop or pasture losses likely; water restrictions imposed.

D3 Extreme drought

Major crop and pasture losses; widespread water shortages.

D4 Exceptional drought

Exceptional and widespread losses; water emergencies.

The US Drought Monitor is drawn every week by authors at the National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA, who weigh rainfall, soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater, vegetation health and reports from local observers. Each map shows conditions through Tuesday morning and is released on Thursday. It shows where drought is and how bad it is; it does not forecast it. CPC's outlooks do that.

• City of ManassasD0 Abnormally dry
• City of Manassas ParkD0 Abnormally dry
• Fairfax CountyD1 Moderate drought
• Fauquier CountyD1 Moderate drought
• Loudoun CountyD1 Moderate drought
• Stafford CountyD0 Abnormally dry

Statistics and narrative from the US Drought Monitor, courtesy of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, with USDA and NOAA. Outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Impacts from NDMC's State Impacts tool.