Buffalo Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Buffalo. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 24 and the first fall freeze around September 21, a growing season of about 118 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last June 6, first September 11
- Median at 32°F
- last May 24, first September 21
- Median at 28°F
- last May 12, first September 30
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 22 | Jun 17 | Jun 13 | Jun 9 | Jun 6 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 28 | May 23 |
| 32°F | Jun 9 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 28 | May 24 | May 22 | May 19 | May 16 | May 12 |
| 28°F | May 28 | May 22 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 8 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 28 |
| 24°F | May 15 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 |
| 20°F | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 18 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 2 |
| 16°F | Apr 26 | Apr 19 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 26 | Mar 18 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Aug 27 | Sep 2 | Sep 5 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 14 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 |
| 32°F | Sep 7 | Sep 12 | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 |
| 28°F | Sep 16 | Sep 20 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
| 24°F | Sep 25 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 |
| 20°F | Oct 3 | Oct 8 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 3 |
| 16°F | Oct 13 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 117 | 109 | 104 | 99 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 82 | 74 |
| 32°F | 139 | 132 | 127 | 122 | 118 | 114 | 110 | 105 | 97 |
| 28°F | 160 | 153 | 149 | 144 | 140 | 136 | 132 | 126 | 120 |
| 24°F | 182 | 174 | 169 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 153 | 148 | 141 |
| 20°F | 204 | 196 | 190 | 185 | 181 | 177 | 172 | 167 | 160 |
| 16°F | 225 | 217 | 211 | 206 | 201 | 196 | 192 | 186 | 180 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,140
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 292
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,510
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,570
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,787
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,148
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 646
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,291 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,142 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 986 | 0 | 3 |
| April | 735 | 0 | 20 |
| May | 477 | 3 | 107 |
| June | 195 | 29 | 297 |
| July | 41 | 132 | 556 |
| August | 66 | 107 | 508 |
| September | 270 | 22 | 244 |
| October | 670 | 1 | 48 |
| November | 986 | 0 | 4 |
| December | 1,282 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 0.7 km from Buffalo. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00481165 (Buffalo). Public domain.