Afton Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Afton. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around June 20 and the first fall freeze around September 1, a growing season of about 71 days.
- Median at 32°F
- last June 20, first September 1
- Median at 28°F
- last June 1, first September 13
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 32°F | Jul 7 | Jul 1 | Jun 27 | Jun 24 | Jun 20 | Jun 17 | Jun 14 | Jun 10 | Jun 2 |
| 28°F | Jun 20 | Jun 14 | Jun 9 | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 28 | May 22 | May 16 | May 10 |
| 24°F | May 30 | May 22 | May 16 | May 12 | May 9 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 |
| 20°F | May 10 | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 8 |
| 16°F | Apr 26 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 | Mar 27 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 32°F | Aug 12 | Aug 20 | Aug 27 | Aug 30 | Sep 1 | Sep 4 | Sep 8 | Sep 11 | Sep 15 |
| 28°F | Aug 29 | Sep 3 | Sep 7 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 19 | Sep 22 | Sep 27 |
| 24°F | Sep 12 | Sep 17 | Sep 20 | Sep 23 | Sep 27 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 12 |
| 20°F | Sep 24 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 25 |
| 16°F | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 6 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 65 | 56 | 50 | 46 | 42 | 38 | 34 | 30 | 24 |
| 32°F | 93 | 86 | 80 | 75 | 71 | 66 | 61 | 55 | 49 |
| 28°F | 128 | 120 | 113 | 108 | 104 | 99 | 93 | 87 | 77 |
| 24°F | 160 | 153 | 147 | 142 | 137 | 132 | 127 | 120 | 112 |
| 20°F | 187 | 180 | 176 | 172 | 168 | 163 | 159 | 153 | 145 |
| 16°F | 216 | 208 | 203 | 199 | 194 | 190 | 185 | 180 | 172 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 9,688
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 41
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 2,537
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 1,724
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,061
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 551
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 206
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,542 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,287 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,135 | 0 | 0 |
| April | 825 | 0 | 3 |
| May | 566 | 0 | 43 |
| June | 316 | 1 | 169 |
| July | 115 | 24 | 376 |
| August | 141 | 16 | 343 |
| September | 395 | 0 | 117 |
| October | 755 | 0 | 11 |
| November | 1,116 | 0 | 0 |
| December | 1,496 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.2 km from Afton. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00480027 (Afton). Public domain.