Roberts Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Baldwin. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 6 and the first fall freeze around October 2, a growing season of about 148 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 16, first September 24
- Median at 32°F
- last May 6, first October 2
- Median at 28°F
- last April 26, first October 12
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 18 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 3 |
| 32°F | May 21 | May 16 | May 12 | May 8 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 21 |
| 28°F | May 12 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 9 |
| 24°F | May 1 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 1 |
| 20°F | Apr 19 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 21 |
| 16°F | Apr 11 | Apr 6 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 14 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 10 | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 |
| 32°F | Sep 18 | Sep 23 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 7 | Oct 12 | Oct 17 |
| 28°F | Sep 26 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 28 |
| 24°F | Oct 9 | Oct 15 | Oct 19 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 8 |
| 20°F | Oct 20 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 |
| 16°F | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 11 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 148 | 143 | 139 | 134 | 130 | 126 | 123 | 118 | 111 |
| 32°F | 168 | 161 | 156 | 152 | 148 | 144 | 140 | 136 | 128 |
| 28°F | 190 | 184 | 178 | 173 | 169 | 165 | 161 | 154 | 147 |
| 24°F | 211 | 206 | 200 | 196 | 192 | 187 | 182 | 176 | 170 |
| 20°F | 228 | 222 | 217 | 213 | 209 | 205 | 200 | 196 | 190 |
| 16°F | 246 | 238 | 233 | 228 | 224 | 220 | 216 | 212 | 205 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,528
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 401
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,082
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,103
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,241
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,494
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 868
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,672 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,389 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,138 | 0 | 10 |
| April | 655 | 1 | 45 |
| May | 320 | 16 | 208 |
| June | 62 | 86 | 474 |
| July | 21 | 150 | 593 |
| August | 43 | 107 | 528 |
| September | 196 | 40 | 311 |
| October | 591 | 2 | 69 |
| November | 998 | 0 | 4 |
| December | 1,444 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 13.2 km from Roberts. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00470486 (Baldwin). Public domain.