Mercer Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Rest Lake. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 25 and the first fall freeze around September 21, a growing season of about 117 days.
- Median at 32°F
- last May 25, first September 21
- Median at 28°F
- last May 11, first October 1
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 32°F | Jun 9 | Jun 3 | May 31 | May 28 | May 25 | May 22 | May 18 | May 14 | May 8 |
| 28°F | May 28 | May 22 | May 18 | May 14 | May 11 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 |
| 24°F | May 17 | May 10 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 25 | Apr 21 | Apr 16 |
| 20°F | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 5 |
| 16°F | Apr 26 | Apr 22 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Mar 29 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 32°F | Sep 3 | Sep 8 | Sep 14 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 28 | Oct 2 | Oct 6 |
| 28°F | Sep 14 | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 4 | Oct 6 | Oct 10 | Oct 15 |
| 24°F | Sep 25 | Oct 1 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 29 |
| 20°F | Oct 7 | Oct 14 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 11 |
| 16°F | Oct 23 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 20 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 116 | 108 | 102 | 96 | 91 | 85 | 79 | 70 | 58 |
| 32°F | 141 | 133 | 127 | 121 | 117 | 112 | 106 | 101 | 92 |
| 28°F | 163 | 156 | 151 | 147 | 142 | 137 | 132 | 126 | 117 |
| 24°F | 188 | 180 | 174 | 169 | 164 | 159 | 155 | 148 | 140 |
| 20°F | 209 | 203 | 197 | 192 | 188 | 184 | 179 | 173 | 165 |
| 16°F | 227 | 220 | 215 | 211 | 206 | 203 | 198 | 193 | 187 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 9,380
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 262
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,437
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,545
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,769
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,119
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 609
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,699 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,427 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,234 | 0 | 4 |
| April | 783 | 0 | 25 |
| May | 392 | 14 | 165 |
| June | 143 | 56 | 369 |
| July | 69 | 99 | 495 |
| August | 95 | 67 | 438 |
| September | 291 | 24 | 224 |
| October | 681 | 2 | 45 |
| November | 1,071 | 0 | 2 |
| December | 1,496 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 15.1 km from Mercer. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00477092 (Rest Lake). Public domain.