Aztalan Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Lake Mills Wwtp. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 29 and the first fall freeze around October 14, a growing season of about 167 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 8, first October 3
- Median at 32°F
- last April 29, first October 14
- Median at 28°F
- last April 17, first October 26
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 22 | May 17 | May 14 | May 11 | May 8 | May 5 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 |
| 32°F | May 13 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 29 | Apr 27 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 |
| 28°F | May 3 | Apr 29 | Apr 24 | Apr 20 | Apr 17 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 4 |
| 24°F | Apr 21 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 8 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 |
| 20°F | Apr 9 | Apr 4 | Apr 1 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 12 |
| 16°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 23 | Mar 21 | Mar 18 | Mar 15 | Mar 12 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 20 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 |
| 32°F | Sep 29 | Oct 4 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 14 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 |
| 28°F | Oct 8 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 |
| 24°F | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 21 |
| 20°F | Nov 2 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 22 | Nov 25 | Nov 30 |
| 16°F | Nov 8 | Nov 14 | Nov 19 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 27 | Nov 30 | Dec 3 | Dec 11 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 165 | 159 | 154 | 150 | 146 | 142 | 138 | 133 | 128 |
| 32°F | 186 | 180 | 176 | 171 | 167 | 163 | 158 | 153 | 146 |
| 28°F | 209 | 202 | 197 | 194 | 190 | 185 | 180 | 175 | 167 |
| 24°F | 233 | 226 | 221 | 217 | 213 | 210 | 206 | 201 | 193 |
| 20°F | 254 | 247 | 241 | 237 | 232 | 228 | 224 | 220 | 213 |
| 16°F | 270 | 262 | 258 | 253 | 250 | 246 | 242 | 237 | 230 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 7,099
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 725
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 4,838
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,773
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,830
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,005
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,301
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,423 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,187 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 965 | 1 | 14 |
| April | 559 | 3 | 68 |
| May | 241 | 43 | 292 |
| June | 37 | 160 | 573 |
| July | 4 | 251 | 711 |
| August | 13 | 193 | 645 |
| September | 132 | 68 | 392 |
| October | 457 | 7 | 122 |
| November | 845 | 0 | 13 |
| December | 1,235 | 0 | 1 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 2.9 km from Aztalan. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00474482 (Lake Mills Wwtp). Public domain.