Mill Creek Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Kumbrabow. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 7 and the first fall freeze around October 6, a growing season of about 150 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 21, first September 27
- Median at 32°F
- last May 7, first October 6
- Median at 28°F
- last April 26, first October 18
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 5 | Jun 1 | May 29 | May 25 | May 21 | May 17 | May 13 | May 8 | May 3 |
| 32°F | May 26 | May 19 | May 16 | May 11 | May 7 | May 4 | May 1 | Apr 28 | Apr 22 |
| 28°F | May 14 | May 7 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 26 | Apr 23 | Apr 20 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 |
| 24°F | May 1 | Apr 25 | Apr 20 | Apr 18 | Apr 15 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 |
| 20°F | Apr 17 | Apr 13 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 24 |
| 16°F | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 29 | Mar 26 | Mar 23 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 12 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Sep 30 | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 9 |
| 32°F | Sep 22 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 20 |
| 28°F | Oct 3 | Oct 9 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 |
| 24°F | Oct 15 | Oct 21 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 29 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 10 |
| 20°F | Oct 26 | Oct 31 | Nov 2 | Nov 5 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 16 | Nov 21 |
| 16°F | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 14 | Nov 17 | Nov 20 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 5 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 149 | 143 | 137 | 132 | 128 | 124 | 120 | 113 | 106 |
| 32°F | 171 | 164 | 159 | 154 | 150 | 146 | 140 | 135 | 128 |
| 28°F | 194 | 187 | 182 | 178 | 173 | 169 | 163 | 159 | 151 |
| 24°F | 214 | 208 | 204 | 201 | 197 | 192 | 188 | 182 | 175 |
| 20°F | 235 | 228 | 223 | 219 | 216 | 212 | 209 | 205 | 199 |
| 16°F | 257 | 248 | 243 | 239 | 235 | 231 | 225 | 221 | 215 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 6,977
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 137
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,899
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,816
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,887
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,113
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 509
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,238 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 991 | 0 | 1 |
| March | 952 | 0 | 8 |
| April | 593 | 1 | 62 |
| May | 316 | 4 | 197 |
| June | 130 | 20 | 343 |
| July | 46 | 58 | 477 |
| August | 69 | 44 | 440 |
| September | 208 | 10 | 265 |
| October | 512 | 1 | 82 |
| November | 816 | 0 | 9 |
| December | 1,107 | 0 | 2 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 15 km from Mill Creek. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00464971 (Kumbrabow). Public domain.