Connell Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Connell 1 W. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 30 and the first fall freeze around October 12, a growing season of about 165 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 13, first October 1
- Median at 32°F
- last April 30, first October 12
- Median at 28°F
- last April 10, first October 24
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 31 | May 24 | May 19 | May 16 | May 13 | May 10 | May 7 | May 3 | Apr 30 |
| 32°F | May 15 | May 10 | May 6 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 12 |
| 28°F | May 1 | Apr 26 | Apr 20 | Apr 15 | Apr 10 | Apr 6 | Apr 1 | Mar 29 | Mar 20 |
| 24°F | Apr 7 | Apr 1 | Mar 28 | Mar 22 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 2 | Feb 23 |
| 20°F | Mar 18 | Mar 10 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 18 | Feb 11 | Feb 4 | Jan 22 |
| 16°F | Mar 3 | Feb 25 | Feb 18 | Feb 10 | Feb 3 | Jan 27 | Jan 17 | Jan 7 | Dec 24 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 15 | Sep 22 | Sep 26 | Sep 29 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 14 |
| 32°F | Sep 29 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 15 | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | Oct 26 |
| 28°F | Oct 8 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 22 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 3 | Nov 10 |
| 24°F | Oct 20 | Oct 25 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 9 | Nov 14 | Nov 20 | Nov 28 |
| 20°F | Oct 29 | Nov 4 | Nov 10 | Nov 17 | Nov 23 | Nov 28 | Dec 3 | Dec 10 | Dec 18 |
| 16°F | Nov 6 | Nov 14 | Nov 25 | Nov 30 | Dec 6 | Dec 12 | Dec 19 | Dec 28 | Jan 6 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 159 | 153 | 148 | 143 | 139 | 135 | 131 | 125 | 117 |
| 32°F | 187 | 179 | 173 | 169 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 152 | 144 |
| 28°F | 222 | 213 | 207 | 202 | 197 | 191 | 187 | 182 | 173 |
| 24°F | 265 | 252 | 245 | 239 | 232 | 226 | 220 | 214 | 206 |
| 20°F | 314 | 300 | 290 | 282 | 273 | 266 | 259 | 251 | 240 |
| 16°F | 349 | 336 | 326 | 316 | 308 | 301 | 290 | 280 | 267 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 96% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 5,450
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 610
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 5,024
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 3,766
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 2,714
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,848
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,143
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 995 | 0 | 1 |
| February | 770 | 0 | 3 |
| March | 648 | 0 | 15 |
| April | 421 | 1 | 86 |
| May | 210 | 26 | 289 |
| June | 69 | 75 | 456 |
| July | 9 | 238 | 694 |
| August | 16 | 216 | 665 |
| September | 106 | 54 | 399 |
| October | 443 | 1 | 101 |
| November | 766 | 0 | 6 |
| December | 997 | 0 | 1 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 1.7 km from Connell. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00451690 (Connell 1 W). Public domain.