Motley Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Chatham. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around April 22 and the first fall freeze around October 23, a growing season of about 183 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 3, first October 13
- Median at 32°F
- last April 22, first October 23
- Median at 28°F
- last April 9, first November 1
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | May 20 | May 14 | May 9 | May 6 | May 3 | Apr 30 | Apr 28 | Apr 24 | Apr 19 |
| 32°F | May 9 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 25 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 7 |
| 28°F | Apr 24 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 12 | Apr 9 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 29 | Mar 23 |
| 24°F | Apr 10 | Apr 5 | Apr 2 | Mar 30 | Mar 27 | Mar 24 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 9 |
| 20°F | Mar 31 | Mar 27 | Mar 21 | Mar 17 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 23 |
| 16°F | Mar 20 | Mar 12 | Mar 8 | Mar 4 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 19 | Feb 10 | Feb 1 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 2 | Oct 5 | Oct 8 | Oct 11 | Oct 13 | Oct 16 | Oct 19 | Oct 23 | Oct 27 |
| 32°F | Oct 9 | Oct 14 | Oct 18 | Oct 21 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 |
| 28°F | Oct 18 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Oct 31 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 5 | Nov 8 | Nov 13 |
| 24°F | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 30 |
| 20°F | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 17 |
| 16°F | Nov 21 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 | Jan 8 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 182 | 176 | 170 | 167 | 163 | 159 | 155 | 149 | 143 |
| 32°F | 204 | 197 | 192 | 187 | 183 | 178 | 173 | 169 | 162 |
| 28°F | 228 | 220 | 214 | 210 | 206 | 202 | 198 | 193 | 186 |
| 24°F | 253 | 245 | 240 | 234 | 229 | 225 | 221 | 216 | 209 |
| 20°F | 288 | 276 | 269 | 263 | 258 | 252 | 247 | 241 | 232 |
| 16°F | 321 | 308 | 301 | 295 | 288 | 281 | 275 | 268 | 259 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 4,450
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 1,043
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 6,251
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 4,885
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 3,686
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 2,651
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 1,770
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 907 | 0 | 8 |
| February | 746 | 0 | 13 |
| March | 606 | 1 | 63 |
| April | 314 | 14 | 196 |
| May | 123 | 71 | 416 |
| June | 16 | 207 | 640 |
| July | 1 | 326 | 790 |
| August | 2 | 283 | 746 |
| September | 51 | 124 | 524 |
| October | 288 | 17 | 223 |
| November | 581 | 1 | 52 |
| December | 817 | 0 | 15 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 28.3 km from Motley. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00441614 (Chatham). Public domain.