Guildhall Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Lancaster. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around May 18 and the first fall freeze around September 30, a growing season of about 132 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last May 31, first September 18
- Median at 32°F
- last May 18, first September 30
- Median at 28°F
- last May 5, first October 9
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Jun 14 | Jun 9 | Jun 4 | Jun 2 | May 31 | May 28 | May 25 | May 21 | May 16 |
| 32°F | Jun 1 | May 28 | May 24 | May 21 | May 18 | May 15 | May 12 | May 8 | May 3 |
| 28°F | May 19 | May 14 | May 10 | May 7 | May 5 | May 2 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 22 |
| 24°F | May 4 | Apr 30 | Apr 27 | Apr 24 | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 16 | Apr 13 | Apr 9 |
| 20°F | Apr 22 | Apr 19 | Apr 15 | Apr 12 | Apr 10 | Apr 8 | Apr 6 | Apr 3 | Mar 31 |
| 16°F | Apr 14 | Apr 10 | Apr 7 | Apr 5 | Apr 3 | Apr 2 | Mar 31 | Mar 28 | Mar 22 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Sep 5 | Sep 10 | Sep 13 | Sep 16 | Sep 18 | Sep 21 | Sep 24 | Sep 27 | Oct 1 |
| 32°F | Sep 16 | Sep 21 | Sep 25 | Sep 28 | Sep 30 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 7 | Oct 12 |
| 28°F | Sep 27 | Oct 1 | Oct 3 | Oct 6 | Oct 9 | Oct 12 | Oct 16 | Oct 21 | Oct 27 |
| 24°F | Oct 7 | Oct 13 | Oct 17 | Oct 20 | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 8 |
| 20°F | Oct 19 | Oct 25 | Oct 30 | Nov 1 | Nov 3 | Nov 6 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 |
| 16°F | Nov 1 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 12 | Nov 15 | Nov 18 | Nov 21 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 128 | 122 | 118 | 114 | 111 | 107 | 104 | 99 | 93 |
| 32°F | 151 | 144 | 139 | 136 | 132 | 129 | 124 | 120 | 114 |
| 28°F | 178 | 171 | 165 | 161 | 157 | 154 | 150 | 144 | 138 |
| 24°F | 205 | 197 | 192 | 188 | 184 | 180 | 176 | 170 | 163 |
| 20°F | 225 | 219 | 215 | 211 | 207 | 204 | 200 | 195 | 188 |
| 16°F | 242 | 236 | 231 | 228 | 225 | 222 | 218 | 214 | 208 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 100% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 8,619
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 249
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 3,584
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 2,651
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 1,840
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 1,154
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 613
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 1,570 | 0 | 0 |
| February | 1,366 | 0 | 0 |
| March | 1,206 | 0 | 2 |
| April | 745 | 1 | 21 |
| May | 385 | 7 | 147 |
| June | 131 | 46 | 367 |
| July | 41 | 101 | 525 |
| August | 64 | 72 | 473 |
| September | 241 | 22 | 251 |
| October | 605 | 1 | 50 |
| November | 933 | 0 | 5 |
| December | 1,331 | 0 | 0 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 7.8 km from Guildhall. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00274556 (Lancaster). Public domain.