Victoria Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Victoria Fire Dept #5. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around February 14 and the first fall freeze around December 9, a growing season of about 299 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 3, first November 27
- Median at 32°F
- last February 14, first December 9
- Median at 28°F
- last January 28, first December 31
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Mar 31 | Mar 19 | Mar 13 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 21 | Feb 14 | Feb 3 |
| 32°F | Mar 13 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 21 | Feb 14 | Feb 7 | Feb 1 | Jan 27 | Jan 17 |
| 28°F | Mar 1 | Feb 17 | Feb 8 | Feb 2 | Jan 28 | Jan 21 | Jan 14 | Jan 7 | Dec 26 |
| 24°F | Feb 19 | Feb 7 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 | Jan 16 | Jan 10 | Jan 5 | Dec 31 | Dec 19 |
| 20°F | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 20 | Jan 14 | Jan 10 | Jan 8 | Jan 3 | Dec 31 | Dec 18 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Nov 6 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 23 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 20 |
| 32°F | Nov 17 | Nov 26 | Dec 1 | Dec 4 | Dec 9 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 | Jan 8 |
| 28°F | Dec 2 | Dec 8 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Dec 31 | Jan 4 | Jan 9 | Jan 16 | Feb 2 |
| 24°F | Dec 12 | Dec 20 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 7 | Jan 10 | Jan 18 | Jan 28 | Feb 8 |
| 20°F | Dec 14 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 9 | Jan 11 | Jan 18 | Jan 23 | Feb 4 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 300 | 289 | 280 | 274 | 268 | 262 | 256 | 248 | 239 |
| 32°F | 334 | 323 | 314 | 307 | 299 | 293 | 284 | 275 | 264 |
| 28°F | 365 | 359 | 351 | 343 | 337 | 330 | 320 | 310 | 299 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 363 | 355 | 344 | 329 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 359 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 84% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 44% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 13% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 1% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 1,254
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 3,119
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 11,008
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 9,222
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 7,504
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 5,893
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 4,420
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 380 | 13 | 165 |
| February | 237 | 28 | 243 |
| March | 121 | 76 | 426 |
| April | 36 | 156 | 571 |
| May | 3 | 356 | 818 |
| June | 0 | 506 | 955 |
| July | 0 | 597 | 1,062 |
| August | 0 | 608 | 1,072 |
| September | 0 | 441 | 891 |
| October | 21 | 245 | 688 |
| November | 140 | 71 | 392 |
| December | 315 | 23 | 219 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 6.4 km from Victoria. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00419361 (Victoria Fire Dept #5). Public domain.