Stonewall Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Fredericksburg. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around March 18 and the first fall freeze around November 10, a growing season of about 235 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last April 3, first November 1
- Median at 32°F
- last March 18, first November 10
- Median at 28°F
- last March 4, first November 22
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 20 | Apr 14 | Apr 11 | Apr 7 | Apr 3 | Apr 1 | Mar 27 | Mar 21 | Mar 13 |
| 32°F | Apr 9 | Apr 2 | Mar 28 | Mar 23 | Mar 18 | Mar 14 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 |
| 28°F | Mar 24 | Mar 18 | Mar 13 | Mar 9 | Mar 4 | Mar 2 | Feb 26 | Feb 22 | Feb 13 |
| 24°F | Mar 14 | Mar 8 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 22 | Feb 16 | Feb 9 | Feb 1 | Jan 22 |
| 20°F | Mar 5 | Feb 26 | Feb 18 | Feb 8 | Feb 1 | Jan 27 | Jan 19 | Jan 8 | Dec 27 |
| 16°F | Feb 24 | Feb 11 | Feb 3 | Jan 28 | Jan 19 | Jan 10 | Jan 2 | Dec 26 | Dec 16 |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 17 | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 6 | Nov 10 | Nov 15 |
| 32°F | Oct 27 | Nov 1 | Nov 4 | Nov 7 | Nov 10 | Nov 13 | Nov 17 | Nov 22 | Nov 28 |
| 28°F | Nov 2 | Nov 9 | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 |
| 24°F | Nov 14 | Nov 21 | Nov 27 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 |
| 20°F | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 10 | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Dec 28 | Jan 2 | Jan 8 | Jan 24 |
| 16°F | Dec 6 | Dec 17 | Dec 24 | Dec 29 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 14 | Feb 1 | Feb 11 |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 235 | 227 | 221 | 216 | 211 | 206 | 202 | 196 | 188 |
| 32°F | 261 | 253 | 246 | 242 | 235 | 230 | 225 | 219 | 211 |
| 28°F | 288 | 277 | 270 | 265 | 259 | 254 | 249 | 243 | 233 |
| 24°F | 328 | 314 | 304 | 296 | 289 | 282 | 274 | 266 | 256 |
| 20°F | 364 | 349 | 339 | 331 | 323 | 315 | 305 | 296 | 285 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 360 | 348 | 339 | 328 | 316 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 91% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 57% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 2,163
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,382
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 9,433
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 7,745
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 6,171
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 4,742
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 3,477
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 559 | 2 | 71 |
| February | 393 | 5 | 123 |
| March | 235 | 27 | 286 |
| April | 83 | 101 | 472 |
| May | 11 | 267 | 721 |
| June | 0 | 432 | 882 |
| July | 0 | 529 | 994 |
| August | 0 | 533 | 998 |
| September | 5 | 335 | 780 |
| October | 77 | 128 | 520 |
| November | 289 | 20 | 231 |
| December | 512 | 3 | 95 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 23.5 km from Stonewall. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00413329 (Fredericksburg). Public domain.