Quail Creek Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for Coleto Creek Rsvr. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around February 17 and the first fall freeze around December 8, a growing season of about 299 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 3, first November 25
- Median at 32°F
- last February 17, first December 8
- Median at 28°F
- last January 31, first December 28
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Mar 25 | Mar 18 | Mar 12 | Mar 7 | Mar 3 | Feb 28 | Feb 23 | Feb 17 | Feb 7 |
| 32°F | Mar 12 | Mar 6 | Feb 28 | Feb 24 | Feb 17 | Feb 11 | Feb 3 | Jan 27 | Jan 15 |
| 28°F | Mar 4 | Feb 23 | Feb 14 | Feb 4 | Jan 31 | Jan 22 | Jan 13 | Jan 4 | Dec 23 |
| 24°F | Feb 24 | Feb 12 | Feb 2 | Jan 25 | Jan 13 | Jan 8 | Jan 2 | Dec 28 | Dec 17 |
| 20°F | Feb 12 | Feb 2 | Jan 22 | Jan 11 | Jan 7 | Jan 2 | Dec 31 | Dec 20 | Dec 10 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Nov 6 | Nov 11 | Nov 16 | Nov 21 | Nov 25 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 18 |
| 32°F | Nov 17 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 | Dec 8 | Dec 14 | Dec 22 | Jan 1 | Jan 11 |
| 28°F | Nov 29 | Dec 6 | Dec 13 | Dec 21 | Dec 28 | Jan 3 | Jan 9 | Jan 19 | Feb 3 |
| 24°F | Dec 9 | Dec 19 | Dec 27 | Dec 31 | Jan 5 | Jan 9 | Jan 22 | Feb 1 | Feb 14 |
| 20°F | Dec 10 | Dec 20 | Dec 31 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 10 | Jan 22 | Feb 2 | Feb 11 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 299 | 288 | 279 | 273 | 266 | 262 | 255 | 248 | 237 |
| 32°F | 338 | 326 | 314 | 306 | 299 | 292 | 284 | 275 | 264 |
| 28°F | 365 | 362 | 351 | 343 | 335 | 329 | 320 | 309 | 296 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 356 | 343 | 329 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 364 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 99% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 81% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 41% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 10% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 0% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 1,242
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 3,026
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 10,925
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 9,138
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 7,422
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 5,813
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 4,339
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 362 | 15 | 182 |
| February | 241 | 28 | 241 |
| March | 124 | 76 | 426 |
| April | 29 | 161 | 583 |
| May | 2 | 340 | 803 |
| June | 0 | 483 | 933 |
| July | 0 | 570 | 1,035 |
| August | 0 | 583 | 1,048 |
| September | 0 | 446 | 895 |
| October | 24 | 234 | 674 |
| November | 147 | 71 | 387 |
| December | 313 | 20 | 215 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 11.2 km from Quail Creek. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00411880 (Coleto Creek Rsvr). Public domain.