Kirby Frost Dates and Growing Season
Frost and the growing season
NOAA's 1991-2020 freeze probabilities for San Antonio Incarnate Word. A median date has an even chance of a later freeze in spring, or an earlier one in fall.
The last spring freeze typically comes around February 25 and the first fall freeze around November 28, a growing season of about 277 days.
- Median at 36°F
- last March 10, first November 16
- Median at 32°F
- last February 25, first November 28
- Median at 28°F
- last February 5, first December 15
Last freeze in spring
The chance of a later freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one spring in ten still freezes after the date; planting after the 10 percent date for 32°F is the cautious choice.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Apr 2 | Mar 27 | Mar 20 | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 6 | Mar 2 | Feb 25 | Feb 18 |
| 32°F | Mar 19 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 25 | Feb 20 | Feb 14 | Feb 5 | Jan 28 |
| 28°F | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 | Feb 12 | Feb 5 | Jan 31 | Jan 23 | Jan 14 | Dec 31 |
| 24°F | Feb 25 | Feb 13 | Feb 5 | Jan 30 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Jan 7 | Dec 31 | Dec 18 |
| 20°F | Feb 14 | Feb 5 | Feb 1 | Jan 22 | Jan 14 | Jan 7 | Jan 1 | Dec 29 | Dec 17 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
First freeze in fall
The chance of an earlier freeze than the date shown. At 10 percent, one fall in ten freezes before the date.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | Oct 30 | Nov 4 | Nov 8 | Nov 12 | Nov 16 | Nov 20 | Nov 24 | Nov 29 | Dec 3 |
| 32°F | Nov 7 | Nov 14 | Nov 18 | Nov 24 | Nov 28 | Dec 1 | Dec 5 | Dec 11 | Dec 21 |
| 28°F | Nov 19 | Nov 28 | Dec 4 | Dec 8 | Dec 15 | Dec 22 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 20 |
| 24°F | Dec 3 | Dec 11 | Dec 20 | Dec 28 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 12 | Jan 22 | Feb 4 |
| 20°F | Dec 16 | Dec 23 | Jan 1 | Jan 1 | Jan 6 | Jan 14 | Jan 24 | Feb 3 | Feb 10 |
| 16°F | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Growing season length
Days between the last spring and first fall freeze at each threshold, with the chance of a season at least that long.
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F | 279 | 270 | 262 | 256 | 251 | 246 | 239 | 233 | 223 |
| 32°F | 313 | 303 | 293 | 286 | 277 | 272 | 266 | 258 | 249 |
| 28°F | 356 | 342 | 332 | 324 | 315 | 306 | 299 | 289 | 275 |
| 24°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 363 | 355 | 345 | 335 | 325 | 311 |
| 20°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 364 | 346 |
| 16°F | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 | 365 |
How often it gets that cold
The share of years with at least one night at or below each temperature.
- 36°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 32°F or colder
- 100% of years
- 28°F or colder
- 95% of years
- 24°F or colder
- 65% of years
- 20°F or colder
- 24% of years
- 16°F or colder
- 3% of years
Degree days
A degree day is one degree of the daily mean temperature beyond a base, for one day. Heating degree days count cold (the fuel a house burns), cooling degree days heat, growing degree days the warmth a crop needs; each crop has its own base.
- Heating degree days, base 65°F
- 1,527
- Cooling degree days, base 65°F
- 2,995
- Growing degree days, base 40°F
- 10,618
- Growing degree days, base 45°F
- 8,851
- Growing degree days, base 50°F
- 7,164
- Growing degree days, base 55°F
- 5,613
- Growing degree days, base 60°F
- 4,219
Growing degree days by month, base 50°F
Heating and cooling by month
| Month | Heating DD | Cooling DD | Growing DD 50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 420 | 8 | 135 |
| February | 282 | 20 | 201 |
| March | 150 | 70 | 396 |
| April | 44 | 156 | 563 |
| May | 5 | 336 | 797 |
| June | 0 | 505 | 955 |
| July | 0 | 591 | 1,056 |
| August | 0 | 611 | 1,076 |
| September | 1 | 425 | 875 |
| October | 39 | 208 | 634 |
| November | 196 | 52 | 326 |
| December | 390 | 12 | 152 |
What this means
NOAA computes these from the daily lows at the station over 1991-2020, fitting the dates of each year's last and first freeze to a distribution, so a date can be stated at any level of risk. 36°F is a frost risk for tender plants on a clear, calm night, since the ground cools below the air above it; 32°F is a freeze; 28°F is a hard freeze that kills most annuals.
The station is 8.4 km from Kirby. Low ground, valleys and open fields freeze earlier and later than a town center or a hillside.
More
Sources
NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals, 1991-2020, annual and seasonal normals for station USC00417947 (San Antonio Incarnate Word). Public domain.